President Trump has ushered in a new phase of assertive American foreign policy, characterized by strategic use of economic leverage and bilateral deal-making that is reshaping traditional alliances and partnerships.
Last week President Trump imposed 50% tariff on India. Brazil faces a similar tariff rate, albeit for different reasons. Another BRICS member South Africa is also in US crosshairs. So is its northern neighbor and NATO ally Canada.
The UK, the EU, Japan South Korea, and few others have made interim trade deals with the US, at terms seemingly favorable to the US. China, the world’s second largest economy, which enjoys some leverage, has pushed back.
US, Russia, Europe, China, and India have a complex geopolitical dynamic. Bilateral relations between each of these countries affects the other.
India’s former Deputy NSA sums it up well: “Trump tariffs are a reminder that US, China, India, Russia are engaged in a complicated dance. Russia is a swing state between India and China. India is a swing state between US and China and between the US and Russia. Russia is a potential swing state between the US and China.”
Modi received a call from Brazil’s President Lula. Modi is to meet Xi Jinping – this is his first visit to China in seven years. Are India-China ties set to de-freeze even as India-US relations painstakingly build over the last 25 years slide downwards. Xi Jinping has recently had calls with Putin as well as the President of South Africa.
Sensing an opportunity thrown up by India-US tensions, the Russians and Chinese are also pushing for a Russia-India- China (RIC) trilateral. The space to watch out for in the coming weeks in Russia-US summit and the evolving India-China dynamics.
Russia-US dynamics will impact the US-India and India-Russia relationship. Will Russia-US relations mend or degenerate? Putin’s strategy towards India will depend on which scenario plays out. He has been publicly wooing India over the last few months. India’s NSA Ajit Doval met Putin soon after Trump’s envoy Witkoff met him. Putin is to visit India later this year.
The US and Western nations disapprove of India buying oil from Russia. India’s proximity to Russia and refusing to take sides over Ukraine makes the US and Europe uncomfortable.
Trump, while earlier going soft on Putin, had hardened his stance against Russia in recent weeks, imposing a deadline of Friday, 08 August for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine or face sweeping sanctions. The economic threat is now overshadowed by the planned Trump-Putin meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine. There was no announcement of further sanctions on Russia from the US on Friday.
India is an interested party in reduction of tensions between Russia and the US, and wants an end to the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s pivot to China can be attributed to breakdown of their relations with the West. India-China relations suffer from deep trust deficit and India would like to maintain its own relations with Russia to prevent its complete slide into Chinese orbit.
The meeting of Indian and Chinese leaders could redefine the strategic landscape in the region and beyond.
India is to host the QUAD Summit – will Trump participate? India is also set to take over the rotating BRICS presidency – a group that is in Trump’s crosshairs.
US-Russia, China-India, China-US and India-Russia will all define the trajectory of choices for India. While each relationship is anchored in its specifications, there is room for manoeuvre. The coming weeks and months will be decisive in shaping the contours of international relations for the next decade. How successfully major powers navigate this period of transition; whether through confrontation or accommodation; will determine whether we’re witnessing the birth pangs of a new stable order or the descent into sustained great power competition that could destabilize the global system.”
Disclaimer: The article has reference to open sources including Times of India, CNN and CGTN.
Image Credit: Aurum Bureau