What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters?
A natural disaster risk analysis assesses potential threats to infrastructure, business, and public safety from events like tropical depressions. The goal is to help organizations prepare for operational challenges and ensure employee safety and operational resilience1.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 05 September 2025
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
Tropical Depression Peipah is moving eastward along Japan’s Pacific coast. While classified as a depression, it poses a moderate risk of disruption due to heavy rainfall and strong winds, which can lead to landslides and localized flooding. The direct impact is expected to last 24-48 hours, with residual effects lingering for up to 72 hours.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Travel & Mobility: Extensive disruptions to air, rail, and road transport are anticipated due to flight cancellations, road closures, and railway service suspensions.
- People Safety: There is a risk of injuries or fatalities from landslides, flooding, and flying debris.
- Business Operations: Temporary business closures and operational slowdowns are likely.
- Asset Security: High winds and flooding could cause widespread power outages and property damage.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Major courier companies may halt parcel deliveries to affected areas, causing significant supply chain disruption.
- Infrastructure & Utilities: There is a significant threat of widespread power outages due to damage to power lines from high winds and falling trees.
Recommended Actions
- HR and Management: Activate communication channels to notify all personnel in the affected regions. Implement flexible work arrangements and ensure on-site staff have access to emergency kits and shelter-in-place protocols.
- Operations: Secure all outdoor assets and ensure critical infrastructure has robust backup power systems. Verify drainage systems and relocate valuable inventory from flood-prone areas.
- Supply Chain: Proactively engage with logistics providers to identify potential disruptions and establish alternative routing plans. Communicate potential delays with clients.
- Business Continuity: Activate the company’s Business Continuity Plan (BCP), focusing on critical functions and IT systems. Ensure data backups are current and accessible remotely.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 110
- Fire Department: 119
- Ambulance: 119
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario is that the tropical depression will cause temporary, localized flooding and transport delays. A moderate escalation could lead to more widespread flooding and disruptions to road and rail networks. A severe, low-probability scenario could see the system intensify into a typhoon, causing widespread damage and infrastructure paralysis. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for escalation.
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