This risk assessment provides an update on Tropical Storm ‘Emong’ impacting the Philippines, specifically Northern and Central Luzon. It evaluates the potential for widespread flooding, landslides, strong winds, and disruptions to infrastructure, offering insights for business continuity and personnel safety.
What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters?
Natural disaster risk assessments evaluate how phenomena like tropical storms impact human safety, critical infrastructure, business operations, and supply chains. They provide timely intelligence that helps organizations prepare for disruptions, mitigate operational risks, and ensure the welfare of staff and assets.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 24 July 2025
- Location: Northern Luzon, Dinagat Islands, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Visayas, Mimaropa, Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Ilocos Region, Metro Manila, Abra, Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Misamis Occidental, Benguet, Zamboanga del Norte, Philippines.
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
Tropical Depression ‘Dante’ has formed near Northern Luzon, posing a moderate risk of localized disruptions and hazards. Expected impacts include heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and potential landslides for 3-5 days. The primary concern is rainfall-induced flooding and landslides in low-lying and mountainous areas, not widespread catastrophic damage.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
Low-lying coastal communities across Northern and Central Luzon, major river basins including the Pampanga River Basin and Cagayan River Basin, and mountainous regions prone to landslides such as the Cordillera Administrative Region (including Baguio City) are highly sensitive to ‘Emong’s’ impacts.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Road Closures: Historically, tropical storms in Luzon lead to closures of major thoroughfares like sections of the Maharlika Highway (Route 1) in Central Luzon and coastal roads in Isabela and Cagayan Valley, often due to flooding and landslides. Routes such as Kennon Road and Halsema Highway in the Cordillera Administrative Region are particularly vulnerable to landslides.
- Transport Disruption: Domestic flight cancellations and diversions, particularly at airports in affected regions such as Tuguegarao Airport and Cauayan Airport, are common. Sea travel, including inter-island ferries and fishing vessels, is typically suspended. Land transport, especially bus services, faces widespread cancellations and detours.
- Utility Damage: Widespread and prolonged power outages affect millions due to downed power lines and damaged transformers. Water supply systems can be contaminated or disrupted by floodwaters, and communication infrastructure (cellular towers, fiber optic cables) is vulnerable to wind and water damage.
- Business Operations: Disruptions to staffing, temporary closures, and reduced productivity are common due to power outages, flooding, and travel restrictions.
Recommended Actions
- Activate BCP and Crisis Management Team; implement flexible work, provide safety directives, and coordinate employee welfare checks.
- Execute pre-impact asset protection: secure outdoor equipment, clear drainage, elevate critical machinery, verify backup power/UPS, and establish remote access.
- Communicate proactively with suppliers, logistics partners, and clients; assess alternative routes, pre-position inventory, and disseminate communication templates for service interruptions.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 100
- Fire Department: 102
- Ambulance: 101
- Official Channels:
- PAGASA (Official)
- NDRRMC (Official)
- Official Government Websites:
- Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) : https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
- National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC): https://ndrrmc.gov.ph/
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario for ‘Dante’ involves localized moderate rainfall and minor disruptions, primarily affecting low-lying areas. However, a moderate escalation could lead to widespread heavy rainfall, significant riverine flooding, and broader infrastructure disruption if the storm intensifies. Businesses should activate continuity plans and prepare for localized impacts, prioritizing safety and communication.
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