Syrian opposition fighters have entered Damascus and declared the end of Assad rule. President Bashar al-Assad has left the capital; his whereabouts are unknown. Thousands of Syrians have congregated in central Damascus celebrating & chanting “Freedom.” Syrian PM has extended hand to the opposition. Heyat Tehrir al-Sham (HTS) chief Abu Mohammed al-Julani, says public institutions will remain under ex-PM.
The lightening offensive by the opposition forces has changed political & territorial landscape of Syria in 10 days, catching world by surprise. Syrian Army, largely made of conscripts, offered little resistance to rebel forces who captured Aleppo (in north on 27 Nov), Hama, Homs (center) & Deraa (south), entering Damascus on Sun, 08 Dec and declaring end of Assad rule. Rebel forces released prisoners & tore statutes.
𝐄𝐧𝐝 𝐎𝐟 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐝 𝐑𝐮𝐥𝐞
Today marks end of 54-years rule of Assad dynasty in Syria, the civilizational state ravaged by civil war since 2011, which killed >350,000 & displaced millions. Bashar al-Assad inherited power from his father in 2000. In Mar 2011, protesters demanding democracy received heavy-handed response leading to civil war. In 2014, ISIL declared caliphate with Raqqa as capital. As civil war dragged on, allies Iran & Syria helped keep Assad in power. The conflict was frozen for last 4 years until rebel forces captured Aleppo on 27 Nov & advanced on Damascus.
𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The fall of Damascus will alter the balance of power. It is a major blow to regional allies Iran & Iraq. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” is diminished. Syria is critical for supply of weapons to its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, now hit hard by Israel. Fall of Syria will cut off Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut corridor. Assad was an ally for Russians. Turkey’s influence may rise. Israel may face less pressure in the north. Trump is advocating a hands-off approach. As the dust settles, a new power dynamic may emerge in the region.
A recap of the the events of Sunday, 08 Dec 2024 is as under:
- Syrian Opposition fighters capture Damascus and declare victory on State TV.
- Russia says Bashar Al-Assad has left the country and given orders for a peaceful transition. His whereabouts are unknown. The removal of Basher al-Assad brings to an end nearly 54 years of Assad family’s autocratic rule on Syria, an ancient civilisational nation of 23 million people, in the grip of civil war since March 2011.
- Opposition groups have declared a curfew in Damascus (4 pm to 5 am)
- Opposition leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani says all state institutions will remain under the supervision of Al-Assad’s prime minister until they are handed over officially.
Reports have come in of celebrations in parts of Syria, including capital Damascus and other major cities, as well as among parts of the Syrian diaspora, some of whom are planning to return home for the first time in many years. Even as many welcome the new reality, some in Damascus & other parts of Syria remain concerned.
This is a turning point in Syrian history. Whether the transition is smooth as the opposition groups are trying and if Syrians unite to rebuild the country remains to be seen.
Who is Abu Muhammad Al-Julani?
As President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime fell, the spotlight moved to Abu Muhammad Al-Julani, Head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the most powerful armed group in Syria.
Born in 1982 in Saudi Arabia, his family moved to Damascus, where his grandfather relocated after Israeli capture of Golan heights. He was radicalised by second Intifada in 2000. Following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, he joined Al Qaeda, was arrested and spent time in U.S.-run prison in Iraq.
In 2011, when revolt erupted against Assad, he returned to Syria & founded al-Nusra front, Syrian branch of Al Qaeda. In 2013, Al-Baghdadi founded ISIL; Julani retained ties with AQ.
In May 2015, Julani said unlike IS, he had no intentions of attacking West & assured if Assad were defeated, there would be no revenge attacks on Alawite minority, to which Assad belonged. He severed ties with al-Qaeda so that West has no reason to attack HTS.
HTS was formed out of a merger with Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and other groups in 2017. Julani positioned himself and HTS as credible caretakers of a Syria liberated from Assad.
HTS sought partnerships (incl Christians) & opened communications with the west. He is seen as pragmatic & opportunistic.
A U.S. official told CNN events in Syria mark collapse of Iran’s artifice across Middle East. The toppling of Iran-backed Assad follows decimation of Iran’s proxies Hezbollah & Hamas by Israel.
The unfolding events will be watched closely. There could be friction among rebel groups (united in cause to overthrow Assad). Kurds control north-east, coastal Alawites are loyal to Assad, Turkiye-backed rebels control strips close to Turkiye & ISIS factions have strongholds. HTS is the prominent group – its leader has distanced itself from ISIS. Once the dust settles, a period of jockeying or infighting could follow. How strict will be implementation of Sharia?
The victory could give a fillip to insurgent groups like Boko Haram, Al Shabab & even Houthis (loss of Iranian influence may not benefit it). The possibility of well-motivated rebel groups overthrowing regimes looms.
Overall, a period of continued instability in the region; loss of face for Russia & Iran. Jordan & Iraq will be impacted. Erdogan’s stock is up, may not like Kurds gaining ground. Iran is weaker as allies ousted or decimated. Quick capitulation by armies in face of rebel advances is the new norm. A rise in influence of Islamists in the region is likely.
What to expect next?
With ouster of Assad, uncertainty in Syria has deepened. The coming days and weeks will be crucial. The strongest group HTS is proscribed by both the U.S. and the UN – its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani was listed as a specially designated global terrorist by U.S. State department. Note that he recently appeared on CNN interview as a liberator.
There are many rebel groups (united to overthrow Assad regime), with varying agendas; however, their coming together in common cause of Syrian unity appears difficult.
There are powerful regional neighbors with their own interests. Turkiye, which may have some leverage with HTS, and for whom 3-million refugees is a geopolitical issue, is at odds with Kurdish-dominated YPG, a prominent group in north-east which has the U.S.-backing. Some Turkish refugees have started returning.
Separate groups dominate south-west of the country and Israel has deployed its forces in the buffer zone.
Trump says U.S. should not get involved in Syria. U.S. has a base in the east & 900 troops to contain ISIL.
Iran & Russia lost a valuable ally. Iran’s land link with Hezbollah is disrupted. Russia has an airbase (Khmeimim) and naval base (Tartus).