What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Environmental Events
Environmental risk analysis assesses natural hazards, such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, flooding and extreme weather, and their potential to disrupt life, infrastructure and economic activity. In Saudi Arabia, seasonal convective storms and frontal systems have historically produced damaging flash floods, infrastructure strain and urban drainage failures. Evaluating these risks is essential for safeguarding people, ensuring continuity of operations and protecting assets, particularly in regions where wadis and older drainage systems can rapidly become overwhelmed.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 26 November
- Location: Saudi Arabia
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Score: 4 / 5
- Confidence Level: 75 %
A severe convective weather episode is expected across multiple regions, with thunderstorms likely to generate heavy rainfall, hail and strong winds over a 12–36-hour period. Highest exposure lies in Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Al-Jawf, Hail and urban coastal centres such as Jeddah. Secondary impacts may reach Riyadh and eastern corridors. The primary risks include flash floods, wadi overflows, urban inundation and disruptions to transport and utilities. Confidence is moderate-high due to consistent National Center of Meteorology advisories and recent seasonal patterns.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact:
- Western and north-western provinces: Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Al-Jawf and Hail.
- Jeddah coastal districts, including low-lying neighbourhoods vulnerable to drainage overload.
- Wadi corridors and roads prone to flash flooding (e.g., Tabuk–Tayma stretch)
Medium Impact:
- Riyadh industrial suburbs near dry riverbeds.
- Â King Abdulaziz International Airport access routes and adjacent economic zones.
Low Impact:
- Eastern regions unless mesoscale systems shift eastward.
Late-autumn convective storms regularly produce severe localised flooding, as seen in events between 2023 and 2025.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Road closures are likely along Jeddah–Makkah Highway, Corniche Road and Riyadh ring roads during peak downpours. Airports may impose temporary arrival/departure restrictions under reduced visibility and storm activity. Logistics networks may face route diversions where wadis overflow. Localised power outages, telecom interruptions and overwhelmed stormwater systems can further degrade service availability for businesses and households.
Recommended Actions
• Immediate: Activate the Incident Response Team upon NCM warnings; confirm staff locations; implement remote-work protocols for high-risk districts; deploy sandbags, elevate valuable equipment and secure ground-level access points.
• Operational Continuity: Shift production or fulfilment to backup facilities outside affected governorates; reroute inbound/outbound logistics; adjust inventory releases to prevent spoilage.
• Staff Safety: Issue transport advisories, avoid low-water crossings and provide emergency accommodations for essential personnel.
• Customer & Stakeholder Communication: Send alerts within one hour of confirmed impacts; update clients through a dedicated status page; provide revised ETAs and contingency arrangements.
Multidimensional Impact
Flash-flood events may amplify power outages, damage drainage networks and disrupt movement across multiple regions. Collateral effects could worsen if severe weather overlaps with large public gatherings or high-traffic periods.
Emergency Contacts
- Saudi Emergency Services:112
- National Centre of Meteorology Alerts: lms.ncm.gov.sa/
- Civil Defence: 998
- Natural Disaster Helpline: 966
Final Thoughts
The forecast indicates a high-impact short-duration weather event with potential for rapid escalation. Businesses should maintain readiness for flash floods, supply-chain delays and site access disruption. Proactive monitoring using early-warning systems such as MitKat’s Datasurfr can significantly reduce operational and safety risks.
Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.