What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters
This report assesses the risks of a natural disaster. The analysis helps organizations prepare for potential operational challenges related to infrastructure resilience and supply chain stability. It is a critical tool for ensuring employee safety and operational resilience. Based on past incidents, such events can cause widespread disruption, destruction of property, and loss of life.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 19/09/2025
- Location: Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
A significant risk of adverse weather conditions, specifically heavy rainfall and associated cascading hazards, is forecasted for Uttarakhand as of Friday, 19 September 2025. Historical analysis of similar monsoon-related events in the region indicates a high probability of widespread disruption, including landslides and flash floods. The severity is justified by the region’s inherent vulnerability and the consistent historical record of significant human and economic impact.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
- High Impact Zones: Pithoragarh, Champawat, and Uttarkashi districts.
- Sensitive Areas: Key national highways such as NH 309, Almora-Haldwani NH, and Champawat-Tanakpur NH. The Kedarnath Yatra route is also a critical sensitive area for weather-related disruptions.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Major transport disruptions are highly probable, including widespread and prolonged closures of major national highways and local roads due to landslides and flash floods. This will cause significant delays in essential supplies and will disrupt local tourism, agricultural activities, and daily commerce. Infrastructure and utilities, including roads, bridges, and power lines, are highly vulnerable to damage, causing prolonged outages.
Recommended Actions
- Establish Emergency Communication Protocols: Activate a multi-channel emergency communication protocol for all personnel in Uttarakhand. Implement flexible work arrangements and issue strict advisories against non-essential travel.
- Proactively Manage Logistics: Identify and pre-authorize alternative logistics routes and backup transportation vendors to circumvent expected disruptions. Secure all physical assets, equipment, and inventory in facilities against water ingress.
- Implement Business Continuity Plans: Ensure fully fueled backup power generators and satellite communication systems for critical facilities. Conduct immediate structural assessments of all operational sites to identify vulnerabilities.
- Maintain Transparent Communication: Develop and disseminate pre-approved communication templates for all stakeholders, outlining potential service disruptions and revised delivery schedules.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 100
- Fire Department: 101
- Ambulance: 102, 108
- National Emergency: 112
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates the heavy rainfall gradually subsiding, allowing for the restoration of connectivity. However, a moderate escalation could see heavy rainfall persist, leading to new landslides and sustained high water levels in rivers. A severe escalation is a low-probability event that would involve widespread and intense rainfall, triggering extensive flash floods and a humanitarian crisis. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for a severe escalation.Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.