What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events
Civil disturbance risk analysis examines how strikes, protests, and large-scale industrial actions disrupt public order, safety, and economic activity.
In Montreal, public transport strikes have a recurring history ranging from brief stoppages to prolonged multi-week actions typically affecting the Société de transport de Montréal (STM) network of buses and metro services.
These strikes, though lawful under labour legislation, tend to create city-wide commuting paralysis, economic drag, and public frustration.
The current strike, involving STM bus and metro drivers, represents one of the most extensive actions in recent years, with a confirmed 28-day duration extending through November 2025.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 31 October 2025
- Location: Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 95 %
A city-wide strike by STM bus and metro workers is set to begin on Friday, 31 October 2025. The Labour Relations Board has confirmed the legality of the action, making an extended shutdown likely. With both bus and metro operations curtailed, the strike will severely affect mobility for hundreds of thousands of commuters across the metropolitan area.
Previous STM walkouts (3-, 9-, and 14-day durations) have led to widespread traffic gridlock and economic losses; this month-long strike is projected to cause major operational and financial disruption for businesses and essential services.
Current Updates
Public transport strikes are confirmed to commence across Montreal, with initial reports indicating a start date of Friday, October 31st, 2025, or Saturday, November 1st, 2025. The strike involves Montreal bus and metro workers (STM employees) and is projected to last for a significant period, with multiple sources referring to a 28-day duration. Essential services are expected to be maintained, but at a severely reduced capacity, leading to significant disruptions for commuters throughout the urban agglomeration. The Labour Relations Board has confirmed the legality of the strike action, solidifying the operational challenges for the coming weeks.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
- High Impact: Downtown Montreal (Rue Sainte-Catherine, McGill area), Berri-UQAM, Lionel-Groulx, and major hospital zones (CHUM, Montreal General).
- Medium Impact: University corridors (McGill, Concordia, UQAM, Université de Montréal), Plateau Mont-Royal, and suburban interchanges.
- Low Impact: Outlying industrial zones with independent logistics or car-based access.
Congestion is expected to spike along Autoroute 15 (Décarie Expressway), Autoroute 40 (Métropolitaine), and Jacques Cartier Bridge, especially during morning and evening peaks.
Impact on Transportation and Services
With STM metro and bus lines operating at minimal capacity, the Orange and Green lines the city’s main arteries will see the most disruption.
Essential services will function under limited schedules, causing long queues, delays, and overcrowding at operating stations.
Commuters will shift toward ride-shares, taxis, and private cars, sharply increasing travel times and pollution.
Businesses depending on daily footfall cafés, retail outlets, and service centers—will experience immediate slowdowns, while hospitals and universities face staff access challenges.
Recommended Actions
- Employee Safety: Enable work-from-home or flexible hours where possible; for essential staff, organize carpooling or shuttle support and reimburse alternate transport costs.
- Operational Readiness: Review staffing rosters; ensure coverage for critical functions; secure premises likely to operate with reduced personnel.
- Business Continuity: Revise delivery schedules; coordinate with logistics partners to avoid peak congestion windows; maintain adequate on-site supplies.
- Communication: Issue clear advisories to staff and clients about altered operating hours; circulate verified updates from STM_Infos and Ville de Montréal channels.
- Coordination: Liaise with municipal authorities and industry associations for real-time guidance and traffic management advisories.
Multidimensional Impact
The strike’s duration and timing coincide with adverse weather forecasts and infrastructure bottlenecks, compounding its effects. Rainfall warnings and scheduled bridge works (e.g., Charles-de-Gaulle Bridge) will aggravate congestion and hinder alternative travel. Commuter frustration and extended travel times may heighten public tension, potentially leading to isolated altercations or spontaneous demonstrations. From an environmental standpoint, the city will face temporary spikes in vehicular emissions due to increased private car usage. For businesses, the prolonged disruption will test remote-work readiness, employee morale, and service continuity—key indicators of urban resilience under stress.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 911 / 514-280-2222
- Fire: 514-872-3775
- Ambulance: 514-993-8080
- City of Montreal (311)
- STM Info-Strike Line: 514-786-4636
Final Thoughts
The Montreal public transport strike represents a high-severity urban mobility crisis with cascading operational, environmental, and social effects.
While negotiations continue, the strike’s 28-day scope demands immediate adaptive planning by employers and city agencies.
Maintaining business continuity will depend on flexible work models, coordinated logistics, and continuous communication with municipal authorities.
As Montreal’s transport gridlock intensifies, proactive measures taken now will determine how effectively the city and its businesses sustain operations during this extended period of disruption. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.