What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events
A civil disturbance event involves public unrest, such as protests, strikes, or riots, which can disrupt daily life and pose risks to public safety and business operations. In the context of the protest in Tbilisi, a risk analysis is crucial for evaluating the potential for localized disruption, its impact on travel and services, and the threat level to personnel and assets. This type of event is historically relevant in Georgia, where recent anti-government protests have centered on central areas of the capital to pressure policymakers and influence public opinion.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 23 September 2025
- Location: Tbilisi, Georgia
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
A public protest march scheduled for Tuesday, September 23, 2025, in Tbilisi, Georgia, carries a moderate risk of localized disruption and potential escalation. Drawing on historical precedents, these events frequently center around governmental institutions and major thoroughfares like Rustaveli Avenue and Freedom Square. While they often begin as peaceful assemblies, they can quickly devolve into clashes with law enforcement, leading to injuries and arrests. The likelihood of significant traffic diversions, temporary business disruptions, and an increased security presence is high. We forecast an initial duration window of 24-72 hours, with a high confidence in localized disruptions and a moderate confidence in potential for minor escalation.
Current Updates
A public protest march is scheduled to take place in Tbilisi on Tuesday, September 23, 2025, to mark the 300th day of non-stop protests that began in late 2024. The march will start from the 300 Aragveli Monument and proceed toward the Parliament, with activities planned along Rustaveli Avenue, including a film screening and an exhibition. The demands remain consistent: the restoration of freedom and democracy, and the scheduling of new parliamentary elections. Recent incidents, including clashes between protesters and law enforcement and reports of “Titushki” (pro-government thugs) attacking demonstrators, highlight the potential for escalation.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
The most significant hotspots are concentrated in central Tbilisi. The areas around the Parliament of Georgia, the Government House, and Freedom Square are categorized as high-impact zones. These locations have historically been the focal points for protests and are the most likely sites for road closures, public transport diversions, and a heavy police presence. Protests may also move along major avenues, with Rustaveli Avenue being a primary protest route.
Impact on Transportation and Services
The protest is expected to have a notable impact on travel and services, although it will be highly localized. Roads, rail, and air travel are unlikely to be affected on a national scale. However, within Tbilisi, localized traffic congestion and diversions are highly probable on key arteries, such as Rustaveli Avenue, especially during the hours of any protest activity. This will cause minor disruptions to business operations and employee commutes. The primary effect will be on local last-mile delivery and localized goods movement, particularly affecting businesses reliant on timely and predictable transport routes.
Recommended Actions
- Implement Remote Work: Mandate remote work or flexible scheduling for all employees whose commute or primary workspace is near known protest hotspots.
- Adjust Logistics: Pre-emptively adjust critical delivery schedules and logistics routes to bypass anticipated protest areas, informing affected clients and suppliers in advance.
- Secure Assets: Secure all physical assets and premises by ensuring enhanced perimeter security, restricting non-essential access, and relocating high-value portable equipment if necessary.
- Activate Continuity Plans: Activate tiered business continuity plans, identifying critical functions that can be sustained remotely or via pre-designated backup facilities outside protest zones.
- Establish Communication: Form a dedicated incident response team to monitor the protest in real-time and provide centralized communication on operational adjustments and employee directives.
Collateral Impact
The protest on September 23 occurs within a highly volatile political context. Recent reports of Ukrainian attempts to discredit Georgia and the ongoing election campaign have heightened tensions. The protest will likely serve as a direct expression of public sentiment on these issues, potentially amplifying political polarization. While the SBC Summit Tbilisi (October 15-16) and the flight route expansion between Tbilisi and Ankara (September 29) are not directly affected by this protest, any escalation or prolonged instability could negatively impact future attendance and the overall perception of safety for international events. The repair of the Ortachala HPP Bridge is highly unlikely to be affected.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 112
- Fire Department: 112
- Ambulance: 112
- National Emergency: 112
- Government of Georgia
- Ministry of Internal Affairs of Georgia
Final Thoughts
The trajectory of this protest is highly dependent on both its initial scale and the response from law enforcement. The protest has the potential to become a flashpoint for broader civil unrest given the country’s ongoing political turmoil and an upcoming October election. The key takeaway for businesses is the need for proactive preparedness and a robust communication strategy to mitigate potential disruptions. A calm and well-planned response can significantly reduce the risk to personnel and business operations.Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.