Risk Analysis: Protests in Indonesia

What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance?

This report assesses the risks of a civil disturbance event in Jakarta. Historical analysis shows that these events are characterized by intense but localized disruptions, often involving clashes with security forces and significant public transport interruptions. The analysis helps organizations prepare for operational challenges related to employee mobility, asset security, and business continuity, which are critical for ensuring operational resilience.

Executive Summary

• Date of Incident: 26 August 2025
• Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
• Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
• Severity Score: 4/5
• Confidence Level: 90%

Heightened socio-political instability is anticipated to persist in Jakarta following the chaotic protests near the MPR/DPR/DPD complex. Drawing on historical data, a clear pattern of intense but localized disruptions emerges, often involving clashes with security forces, use of tear gas, road closures, and significant public transport interruptions. The current incident, marked by police firing tear gas into residential areas and 203 arrests, indicates a high potential for continued unrest. We forecast the duration window for significant impact to be the next 24-72 hours, with lingering minor disruptions extending over the next 7 days. The severity is high, justifiable by direct confrontations, infrastructure damage, and widespread traffic and transit paralysis.

Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas

The primary sensitive area affected is the MPR/DPR/DPD complex itself. Additionally, residential areas adjacent to the complex were impacted by police actions. Historically, areas such as the Central Jakarta District Court and Monas have also been focal points for demonstrations. Key roads near the MPR/DPR/DPD complex, such as Jalan Gatot Subroto and Jalan Asia Afrika, are prone to blockades.

Impact on Transportation and Services

• Travel & Mobility: Severe disruption to ground and rail transport is expected, including major road closures and KRL train service paralysis.
• People Safety: There is a high risk of injury or harm to individuals due to clashes, tear gas deployment in residential areas, and mass arrests.
• Business Operations: Significant disruption to daily business operations in central Jakarta is likely due to employee mobility restrictions, absenteeism, and potential for direct impact on establishments near protest areas.
• Asset Security: There is a moderate risk of property damage to public and private assets, as evidenced by a destroyed police post and collapsed concrete separator.
• Supply Chain & Logistics: A moderate impact on local supply chains and logistics is anticipated due to road closures and traffic diversions.

Recommended Actions

• Implement immediate work-from-home directives for all non-essential personnel in affected areas.
• Activate heightened security protocols for all company premises, including restricted access and increased surveillance.
• Assess inventory levels and potential disruptions to critical supply routes and develop alternative logistics plans.
• Activate tiered business continuity plans focusing on core services, ensuring IT maintains robust backup systems and remote access capabilities.
• Form a cross-functional Crisis Management Team to monitor the situation, make agile decisions, and disseminate verified information.

Emergency Contacts

• Police: 110
• Fire Department: 113
• Ambulance: 118 or 119
• National Emergency: 112
• Official Channels:
  • Kepolisian Negara Republik Indonesia (Indonesian National Police)
  • Pemerintah Provinsi DKI Jakarta (DKI Jakarta Provincial Government)
  • Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Republik Indonesia (House of Representatives of Indonesia)

Final Thoughts

The baseline scenario anticipates protests near the DPR/MPR complex will gradually subside over the next 1-3 days, with isolated, smaller demonstrations potentially occurring but largely contained. A moderate escalation could see protests intensify or spread to other key areas, leading to more frequent clashes and prolonged public transport disruptions. A severe escalation, though a low probability, could lead to widespread, organized civil unrest across multiple major Indonesian cities. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for escalation. The need for continuous monitoring and preparedness is paramount to managing the inherent volatility of such events.

Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.