What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters?
This report assesses the risks of a severe natural disaster event in Vietnam. Historical analysis shows that the region is highly susceptible to extreme weather, leading to significant infrastructure damage and loss of life. This analysis helps organizations prepare for sustained operational challenges related to logistics, personnel movement, and asset protection.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 26 August 2025
- Location: Thanh Hoa, Quang Tri, Danang, Thua Thien Hue, Quang Ninh, Vietnam, Laos
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
Tropical Depression Kajiki, while weakened from a typhoon, continues to pose a significant risk to Central Vietnam, particularly the provinces of Nghệ An, Thanh Hóa, and Hà Tĩnh, due to persistent heavy rainfall. The primary threat is not wind damage but water-related impacts, with a likely duration window of 3-5 days and residual risks extending up to 7-10 days. We assess the severity score at 3 (Moderate), with a high likelihood of localized ‘Severe’ impacts in low-lying and mountainous areas. This assessment is supported by consistent patterns of hydro-meteorological events in Central Vietnam leading to widespread disruption and damage.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
The most sensitive areas prone to severe impact include the mountainous and low-lying regions of Nghệ An (specifically Quỳ Châu District, Tương Dương District, Hữu Khuông commune’s San village, and areas around Vinh Hoàn and Bàn Pha). Thanh Hóa province is also highly vulnerable, facing ‘complex flooding’ and ‘major flooding’ risks. The entire central region from Nghệ An to Thừa Thiên-Huế is under ‘high risk of severe flooding’ due to prolonged heavy rain.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- People Safety: There is a high risk of fatalities and injuries due to flash floods, landslides, drownings, and debris.
- Travel & Mobility: Extensive road closures are anticipated, particularly on National Route 7, and potential disruptions to local air and rail services due to flooding and landslides.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Major impediments to the movement of goods and services are expected due to impassable roads, disrupted port operations, and workforce mobility issues, leading to significant delays and shortages.
- Infrastructure & Utilities: There is a high risk of significant damage to roads, bridges, power grids, and water supply systems from sustained heavy rainfall, leading to widespread utility outages.
- Business Operations: Likely disruption to local businesses due to employee inability to travel, power outages, damaged premises, and supply chain interruptions.
Recommended Actions
- Activate a remote work protocol for all non-essential personnel in identified high-risk and flood-prone areas.
- Execute pre-defined asset protection plans for facilities in low-lying or coastal regions, including elevating critical machinery and sensitive inventory.
- Diversify or reroute supply chain and logistics pathways to circumvent anticipated disruptions from flooding or damaged infrastructure.
- Validate and test the integrity of off-site data backup and disaster recovery systems to ensure continuous access to critical business applications and client data.
- Proactively issue clear and concise communications to clients, partners, and regulatory bodies regarding potential service impacts and mitigation measures.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 113
- Fire Department: 114
- Ambulance: 115
- National Emergency: 112, 113, 114, 115
- Official Channels:
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates heavy rainfall persisting, causing localized flash floods and minor landslides, but with effective management by authorities. A moderate escalation could see persistent heavy rainfall leading to more widespread flooding and prolonged road closures. A severe escalation, though a low probability, could lead to catastrophic, widespread flooding and numerous large-scale landslides. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for escalation. Continuous monitoring and preparedness are paramount to managing the inherent volatility of such events.
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