What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disaster Events
Risk analysis in natural disasters involves assessing the potential human, economic, and infrastructural impact of weather phenomena to enable early mitigation and resilience planning. For the Arabian Sea basin, cyclonic systems like Biparjoy (June 2023) and Tej (October 2023) have become more frequent and intense due to warmer sea surface temperatures and altered monsoon dynamics. These cyclones often evolve rapidly, causing widespread flooding, structural damage, and prolonged disruption to utilities and transport. Understanding Shakthi’s formation and trajectory is crucial, as the region’s coastal population density and industrial exposure amplify vulnerability to severe cyclonic storms.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 07 October 2025
- Location: Mumbai, Northeast Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Sindh, India, Pakistan, Yemen, Oman
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 90%
Cyclonic Storm Shakthi poses a high risk to India’s western coastal states, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) monitoring its gradual intensification. The storm system could strengthen further, bringing strong winds (up to 90–130 kmph), torrential rainfall, and storm surges. The impact window is estimated at 5–7 days—2–3 days of peak severity followed by several days of residual rainfall. The projected impact spans fatalities, transport paralysis, power outages, and economic disruption across Gujarat, Maharashtra, and adjoining coastal regions, mirroring patterns seen during Cyclone Biparjoy.
Current Updates
As of Tuesday, 07 October, Cyclonic Storm Shakhti is active over the Arabian Sea. While the precise intensity and trajectory on this specific date require direct consultation with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin, the classification as a ‘Cyclonic Storm’ indicates a well-defined low-pressure system with sustained wind speeds of 63-88 kmph (34-47 knots). The IMD is continuously monitoring the system, and its updates (e.g., via mausam.imd.gov.in) remain the primary source for real-time tracking and forecast advisories.
Sensitive Zones and Known Hotspots
High-impact zones: Gujarat coast (Kutch, Dwarka, Junagadh, Porbandar, Devbhoomi Dwarka) and Maharashtra’s coastal belt (Mumbai, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg).
Medium-impact zones: Inland districts of Marathwada and Vidarbha likely to face heavy rainfall and flooding.
Low-impact zones: Coastal Sindh and Oman, where residual effects may persist as the system weakens. Historical patterns suggest a recurrence of widespread waterlogging, storm surge flooding, and utility disruption along India’s western coast.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Severe travel disruptions are expected across air, road, rail, and sea transport.
- Air: Flight delays and cancellations at Mumbai and Ahmedabad airports.
- Rail: Western and Konkan Railways may face suspensions or rerouting due to flooding and debris.
- Ports: Temporary closure of major ports including Kandla, Mundra, and Mumbai; fishing fleets advised to remain docked.
- Roads: Highways such as NH-66 (Mumbai–Goa) and NH-48 (Mumbai–Ahmedabad) likely to face flooding, fallen trees, and accidents due to poor visibility.
- Utilities: Anticipate widespread power failures and mobile network disruptions as strong winds damage substations and cell towers. Business continuity will depend on backup power, remote work, and real-time communication systems.
Recommended Actions
- Employee & Public Safety: Enforce remote work for non-essential staff 24–48 hours prior to impact. Ensure evacuation readiness in coastal offices.
- Asset Protection: Secure facilities, reinforce windows and signage, elevate inventory, and test power backup systems.
- Supply Chain Resilience: Pre-position critical materials, reroute logistics through alternate ports, and monitor route closures in real time.
- Crisis Management: Establish a centralized Incident Command Centre for real-time updates and resource deployment.
- Communication Strategy: Disseminate verified advisories via email, SMS, and internal apps; coordinate updates with local authorities and IMD bulletins.
Multidimensional Impact
Cyclonic Storm Shakthi’s impact will be multilayered, affecting multiple domains beyond immediate weather damage. Widespread power outages could delay the restoration of water supply and communication systems, especially amid the ongoing electricity workers’ strike in Maharashtra (October 9–11), which risks prolonging outages. The storm’s timing also disrupts electoral preparations in Aurangabad and strikes in Manmad, diverting administrative resources. Transportation diversions, particularly between Sambhajinagar and Paithan, may become impassable, isolating rural areas. Agricultural losses in Konkan and Saurashtra will ripple through local economies, while postponed protests and public gatherings could add to post-disaster frustration. Regionally, Shakthi’s outer bands could intensify rainfall in inland Maharashtra and parts of Sindh and Oman, posing transboundary flood risks and potential marine contamination from storm surge runoff.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 100
- Fire Department: 101
- Ambulance: 108 / 102
- National Emergency: 112
- Official Channels:
Final Thoughts
Cyclonic Storm Shakthi underscores the rising frequency and intensity of Arabian Sea cyclones, influenced by warming sea temperatures and erratic monsoon patterns. The immediate priority is safeguarding people and critical infrastructure while ensuring continuity of essential services. Over the next week, monitoring the storm’s trajectory and response effectiveness will be key. Strategic takeaway: coastal states and corporations must invest in early warning integration, resilient utilities, and pre-emptive supply chain rerouting. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.