What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Critical Infrastructure Events
This report assesses the risks of a cyber attack on critical infrastructure. The analysis helps organizations prepare for potential operational challenges related to system security, service continuity, and supply chain integrity. It is a critical tool for ensuring business resilience in the face of systemic failures.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 20 September 2025
- Location: European airports, London, Belgium, United Kingdom, Germany
- Risk Category: Critical Infrastructure
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 90%
A sophisticated cyber attack targeting European airports, notably Brussels Airport (BRU), has led to significant operational disruption, including multiple flight cancellations and delays. The recovery timeline is expected to be 24-72 hours for initial system restoration, with full normalization of services potentially extending to 3-5 days. The immediate and tangible effect on flight operations warrants a high severity assessment. We assign a severity score of 4 out of 5, indicating significant disruption to business operations and travel.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
The primary sensitive area is Brussels Airport (Zaventem), encompassing its entire operational complex: passenger terminals, baggage handling systems, air traffic control (Skeyes facilities), and the extensive cargo area known as Brucargo. Given reports of “several airports in Europe” being targeted, other major European air hubs are also considered sensitive areas under duress, depending on the attack’s scope.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Travel & Mobility: Severe and widespread air transport disruption is the primary impact, including extensive flight cancellations and delays at BRU. The knock-on effect will cascade across European air networks, causing significant passenger inconvenience.
- Business Operations: The attack has a direct and severe impact on airport and airline operations, leading to substantial financial losses, reputational damage, and operational inefficiencies.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Air cargo operations, particularly at Brucargo, face severe delays and backlogs, impacting time-sensitive shipments and international trade.
- Communications & IT: This dimension faces the most profound impact, as the attack has compromised critical IT systems essential for airport functionality, necessitating urgent system restoration and enhanced cybersecurity measures.
- Infrastructure & Utilities: While no physical damage is present, the attack compromises the operational integrity of critical IT infrastructure for flight scheduling, baggage handling, and air traffic control.
Recommended Actions
- Activate emergency travel protocols: Immediately identify employees in transit or scheduled to travel via affected airports. Provide clear safety instructions and alternative travel arrangements, and authorize remote work.
- Assess logistics impact: Conduct an urgent impact assessment on supply chains reliant on air freight. Proactively engage with freight forwarders to identify and implement alternative shipping routes.
- Establish a crisis communication hub: Disseminate verified updates to employees, clients, and partners. Simultaneously, IT and security teams must conduct an immediate internal cyber threat assessment.
- Activate business continuity plans: For critical business functions impacted by the disruptions, shift operations to unaffected regional hubs, utilize redundant systems, or increase reliance on digital collaboration tools.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 101
- Fire Department: 100
- Ambulance: 100
- National Emergency: 112
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates the cyber attack being contained to non-critical flight systems, allowing for a gradual resumption of services within 24-48 hours. However, a significant backlog of flights will lead to residual delays for days. A moderate escalation could see the attack affect interconnected systems, extending the disruption beyond 72 hours with a moderate likelihood of a data breach. A severe escalation, though a low probability, involves a coordinated assault on critical European aviation infrastructure, leading to a systemic failure and potentially requiring military-grade intervention.Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.