What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events
This report assesses the risks of a civil disturbance event. The analysis helps organizations prepare for potential operational challenges related to workforce mobility and public safety in response to a demonstration. It is a critical tool for ensuring employee safety and operational resilience. Based on past incidents, such events have the potential to escalate if not managed correctly.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 18/09/2025
- Location: Cagliari, Genoa, Bologna, Rome, Milan, Italy
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
A nationwide mobilization by CGIL Italy, scheduled for Friday, September 19, is anticipated to cause moderate to significant disruption across various sectors in Italy. Historically, large-scale union mobilizations and pro-Palestine protests in Italy have led to widespread public transport stoppages and localized road closures. The event is likely to last for a single day, primarily impacting public services and urban mobility. While such events are generally peaceful, there is a low risk of isolated clashes or minor property damage.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
- High Impact Zones: Major arteries in city centers such as Rome (e.g., Via del Corso, Via dei Fori Imperiali), Milan (e.g., Corso Vittorio Emanuele II, Piazza Duomo surroundings), and Naples (e.g., Via Toledo, Piazza del Plebiscito).
- Sensitive Areas: Key government buildings (e.g., Palazzo Chigi, Parliament), foreign embassies (potentially the Israeli Embassy if it becomes a focal point), major public squares (Piazza Venezia, Piazza San Giovanni in Laterano in Rome; Piazza Duomo in Milan), and central business districts.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Significant disruption to public transport (buses, trains, metro) and localized road closures for marches are highly anticipated nationwide. This will affect operators like ATAC in Rome, ATM in Milan, and EAV in Campania. Intercity rail services (Trenitalia, Italo) are also highly susceptible to disruptions. The event will also impact business operations, causing a high likelihood of absenteeism due to transport disruptions and participation in the mobilization, leading to reduced productivity and temporary business closures, particularly along protest routes.
Recommended Actions
- Implement flexible work arrangements: Offer remote work options and advise employees on potential public transport disruptions and alternative commuting routes.
- Assess critical operations: Conduct a rapid assessment of critical operations, supply chains, and customer-facing services potentially impacted by transport disruptions. Develop immediate contingency plans for high-risk areas.
- Enhance physical security: Increase vigilance and enhance physical security measures at all business premises, and coordinate with local security services.
- Develop a communication plan: Disseminate a clear communication plan for both internal and external stakeholders, providing real-time updates and proactive information.
- Activate an internal incident management team: Establish a team to continuously monitor the situation, make real-time decisions, and coordinate responses to any direct impacts arising from the nationwide mobilization.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 113, 112
- Fire Department: 115
- Ambulance: 118
- Presidency of the Council of Ministers (Governo Italiano)
- Ministry of Interior (Ministero dell’Interno)
- Department of Civil Protection (Protezione Civile)
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates the nationwide mobilization proceeding peacefully, primarily impacting urban centers with pre-announced marches and public transport stoppages. However, there is a moderate risk of escalation if the mobilization sees a larger-than-expected turnout with some isolated incidents of minor clashes or vandalism. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for a severe escalation, where the protest acts as a catalyst for sustained, unannounced protests and strikes.Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.