What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events
This report assesses the risks of a civil disturbance event. The analysis helps organizations prepare for potential operational challenges related to workforce mobility and public safety in response to a demonstration. It is a critical tool for ensuring employee safety and operational resilience. Based on past incidents, such events have the potential to escalate if not managed correctly.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 18 September 2025
- Location: Ballymena, Larne, Carrickfergus, Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 88%
A high-severity risk of civil unrest is forecast for Northern Ireland, specifically around Thursday, September 18, centered on anti-immigration rallies. Drawing on historical precedents from August 2024 and June 2025, similar protests have consistently led to localized violence, clashes with police, significant road closures, and disruptions to business operations. The duration window for escalated risk is anticipated to be 24-72 hours, potentially extending over the weekend. Our confidence in this forecast is high due to the consistent escalation and impact observed in past anti-immigration events across the region.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
- High Impact Zones: The city centers of Belfast, Derry, and Ballymena.
- Sensitive Areas: Belfast City Hall, which is a recurring focal point for protests and counter-protests, and areas with known migrant populations or asylum seeker accommodation.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Anti-immigration rallies are anticipated to cause significant disruptions to road networks and public transport due to planned demonstrations and spontaneous blockades. Businesses in affected areas are likely to experience reduced footfall, staff accessibility issues, and temporary closures. There is also a moderate risk of property damage including arson, vandalism, and bonfires, particularly in areas of prolonged unrest.
Recommended Actions
- Prioritize Employee Health and Safety: Activate a ‘Work from Home’ or flexible hours policy for employees in affected areas. Advise all personnel to avoid identified rally locations and to monitor local news for route disruptions.
- Enhance Security Protocols: Enhance physical security protocols for all premises located within or adjacent to anticipated rally routes or high-risk areas. This includes securing all access points and ensuring functional CCTV coverage.
- Develop Business Continuity Plans: Develop and disseminate a business continuity plan specifically addressing potential supply chain interruptions and client service disruptions. Pre-arrange alternative delivery routes and schedules.
Establish an Incident Management Team: Convene an internal Incident Management Team (IMT) composed of representatives from HR, Operations, Security, and IT to continuously monitor the evolving situation and make real-time operational adjustments.