What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance?
This report assesses the risks of a civil disturbance event in Jakarta. The analysis helps organizations prepare for potential operational challenges related to logistics, personnel movement, and asset protection. It is a critical tool for ensuring employee safety and operational resilience.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 25 August 2025
- Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Level: 90%
Two distinct protest events are scheduled in Jakarta. Student groups have announced a large demonstration for Monday, August 25, and the Labour Party has planned a separate action for Thursday, August 28. Historical data from similar protests indicates a high probability of localized, yet impactful, disturbances. The severity is assessed as moderate, primarily driven by the certainty of significant traffic and mobility impacts, and the historical precedent of minor clashes with security forces.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
Primary sensitive areas typically include the Presidential Palace (Istana Negara), the DPR/MPR RI Building, the Constitutional Court Office, and the Central Jakarta District Court. These locations are frequently associated with road closures, traffic gridlock, and increased security presence.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Travel & Mobility: High probability of severe traffic congestion, road closures impacting major arteries, and disruptions to public transportation routes in Jakarta’s central areas.
- Business Operations: Disruption to business access, employee commute, and daily operations due to road closures and security measures in central business districts.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Localized delays in last-mile delivery and urban logistics due to blocked roads and rerouting, particularly affecting businesses operating in central Jakarta.
- People Safety: Risk of minor injuries from potential clashes with security forces or crowd surges.
Recommended Actions
- Prioritize Employee Safety & Enable Remote Work: Direct non-essential personnel to work remotely on Monday, August 25th, and Thursday, August 28th.
- Secure Physical Assets and Operational Sites: Implement heightened security protocols for all physical premises, especially those located in potential protest zones.
- Proactively Manage Supply Chain and Logistics: Review and pre-emptively adjust logistics and delivery schedules, identifying alternative routes to avoid anticipated road closures.
- Maintain Business Service Continuity & Client Communication: Activate business continuity plans to ensure uninterrupted client service, leveraging remote capabilities and backup systems.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 110
- Fire Department: 113
- Ambulance: 118
- National Emergency: 112
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates the scheduled demonstrations proceeding as planned, with predictable road closures and traffic diversions. A moderate escalation could see protests intensify with instances of civil disobedience, prolonged road blockades, and minor clashes. A severe escalation, though a low probability, could lead to widespread, violent clashes, substantial public and private property damage, and a protracted period of instability. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for escalation.
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