What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events
Civil disturbance risk analysis evaluates threats arising from protests, mass gatherings, or public demonstrations that may disrupt mobility, business continuity, and community stability. These events can impact safety, logistics, and access to critical assets. In Metro Manila, large-scale gatherings, especially those organised by major groups such as Iglesia ni Cristo, have historically resulted in significant traffic congestion, class or work suspensions, and heightened demand on emergency services. Although these events are typically peaceful, the concentration of large crowds increases the probability of localized operational disruptions.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 18 November 2025
- Location: Metro Manila, Quezon City, Philippines
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 90 %
The Iglesia ni Cristo rally continues at the Quirino Grandstand for a third day, generating severe traffic congestion, localized business disruption, and operational challenges. While major safety threats remain low, large crowd densities elevate risks of minor medical incidents and impede mobility across central Manila.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
- High Impact: Quirino Grandstand, Rizal Park, Roxas Boulevard, P. Burgos Street, and adjacent routes where road closures and crowd concentrations are highest.
- Medium Impact: Manila City Hall, National Museum, Bonifacio Drive, Taft Avenue, and areas hosting rerouted public transport services.
- Low Impact: Peripheral urban zones in Quezon City and Pasay where indirect congestion may occur, but crowd presence remains limited.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Major arterial roads around the rally site are partially or fully closed, causing severe congestion. Public utility vehicle routes are diverted, resulting in prolonged travel times and delays for employees and supply vehicles. Businesses near the Grandstand face reduced foot traffic and delayed deliveries. Digital services remain functional, though temporary cellular congestion is possible due to high device density in the protest zone.
Recommended Actions
- Enable work-from-home or staggered shifts for employees commuting through affected districts.
- Activate Business Continuity Plans to shift critical tasks to remote or alternate sites.
- Communicate proactively with clients about possible delays and provide virtual engagement options where applicable.
- Strengthen facility security through enhanced access control, increased patrols, and close coordination with local police.
- Deploy an internal monitoring cell to track government advisories, traffic updates, and rally developments, issuing updates every two to four hours.
Multidimensional Impact
The handling of this rally serves as a practical readiness exercise for authorities ahead of the large anti-corruption demonstrations expected on 30 November. Traffic fatigue and public inconvenience may influence participation and sentiment toward subsequent mass actions.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Hotline (Philippines): 911
- Manila Police District Hotline: 8523-3378
- MMDA Hotline: 136
- Local Government of Manila: manila.gov.ph
Final Thoughts
The ongoing rally presents moderate but manageable disruption across Metro Manila. While safety risks remain low, mobility and operations will continue to be strained until dispersal. Organizations should prioritize flexible arrangements and real-time monitoring. Implementing predictive tools such as MitKat’s Datasurfr can enhance preparedness for future large-scale gatherings. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.