What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters Events
Natural disaster risk analysis evaluates hazards such as landslides, floods and earthquakes by assessing exposure, vulnerability and potential impacts. In Indonesia, landslides are a recurrent seasonal risk during the monsoon period, particularly in West Java’s hilly terrain. Such analysis supports preparedness, emergency response and continuity planning for communities, businesses and critical infrastructure.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 16 December
- Location: Sukabumi Regency, West Java, Indonesia
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 4 / 5
- Confidence Level: 75 %
Heavy and sustained rainfall has triggered multiple landslides across at least nine sub-districts of Sukabumi. Several roads are blocked, homes damaged and residents displaced. Given ongoing rainfall forecasts and historical recurrence, the risk of further slope failures and prolonged access disruption remains high over the next several days.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact:
- Sub-districts along the Sukabumi–Palabuhanratu corridor, including Cibadak, Cikidang, Cibitung and Jampang Kulon.
- Residential clusters located on steep slopes and riverbanks, where house collapses and ground movement have been reported.
Medium Impact:
- Interior village access roads linking agricultural areas to local markets.
- Tourism corridors toward Ujung Genteng and Geopark Ciletuh, historically prone to landslide-related closures.
Low Impact:
- Central urban areas of Sukabumi city with limited slope exposure but vulnerable to indirect effects such as supply delays.
Landslides in Sukabumi show a strong seasonal pattern during December–February, often recurring after prolonged rainfall and saturated soil conditions.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Key transport routes, including the Sukabumi–Palabuhanratu national road and several provincial connectors, face temporary closure due to debris and flooding. Public transport, logistics movements and tourism access to southern coastal areas are disrupted. Damage to small bridges, water channels and power lines may interrupt utilities, affecting households, local businesses and communications.
Recommended Actions
Immediate Measures:
- Support BPBD-led search-and-rescue, evacuation and shelter operations.
- Restrict access to unstable slopes and enforce road closures until clearance is completed.
- Reroute logistics through alternate corridors and prioritize delivery of essential goods.
Strategic Measures:
- Conduct rapid slope assessments and temporary stabilization works in high-risk villages.
- Enhance rainfall monitoring and early-warning dissemination at sub-district level.
- Review land-use controls and community preparedness programs in landslide-prone zones.
Multidimensional Impact
The landslides may compound broader seasonal flood risks across West Java, stretching emergency response resources. Disruption to tourism and agriculture could affect local income, while sedimentation may degrade water quality and irrigation systems.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Services: 112
- Natural Disaster Assistance: 129
- BPBD Sukabumi: bpbd.sukabumikota.go.id/
- Weather Alerts: bmkg.go.id/
Final Thoughts
Th The Sukabumi landslides represent a high-severity, weather-driven disaster with potential for further escalation if rainfall persists. The immediate risk window spans the next three to ten days, with longer-term recovery likely in the hardest-hit villages. For businesses and policymakers, early-warning systems, route diversification and preparedness tools such as MitKat’s Datasurfr are critical to reduce disruption, protect lives and enhance resilience during Indonesia’s peak landslide season. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.