Client: A Global Oil & Gas Major
Location: East Africa Focused Expansion
Sector: Oil & Gas Industry
Scope of Engagement
A global oil and gas major was exploring investment in offshore natural gas blocks and related midstream infrastructure in Mozambique, particularly in the northern region of Cabo Delgado. While the resource potential was significant, the region’s insurgency risks, political fragility, and regulatory opacity posed substantial concerns. The client sought a detailed Country Risk Assessment to evaluate long-term project viability, operational security, and reputational exposure.
Our Response
MitKat deployed its Geopolitical Risk Assessment Framework, drawing on in-house analysts, open-source intelligence, and energy-sector specialists. The approach was tailored to the client’s specific needs and security posture in fragile geographies.
Key Actions Taken:
- Country Profiling
Analysed Mozambique’s political system, ruling party dynamics, election volatility, foreign alliances, and regulatory enforcement capacity. Special emphasis was laid on the state’s ability to manage large foreign investments in extractives. - Risk Matrix Mapping
Evaluated over multiple indicators across five critical domains: Political, Economic, Social, Environmental, and Security. Key risks included insurgent activity in Cabo Delgado, contract sanctity, infrastructure gaps, and currency volatility. - Sectoral Vulnerability Analysis
Mapped sector-specific risks such as:- Militancy targeting LNG logistics and worker camps
- Delays in port and road infrastructure
- Local discontent due to perceived inequitable resource sharing
- Environmental activism and international scrutiny over emissions
- Scenario Planning
Developed high-impact scenarios including regime transition, escalation of Islamist insurgency, anti-foreign backlash, and ESG-triggered global divestment pressure. - Stakeholder Mapping
Identified key actors including:- Ministry of Mineral Resources & Energy
- Military leadership and provincial governors
- Infrastructure and logistics partners
- Local community and NGO networks involved in environmental and land rights campaigns
The final deliverables included a customised country risk assessment report, and a board-level strategy memo. These helped the client:
- Assess project feasibility based on real-world risks
- Plan for phased engagement in lower-conflict regions
- Integrate geopolitical and ESG risks into their global ERM framework
Why It Matters?
In energy frontiers like Mozambique, opportunities exist alongside insurgency, community risk, and complex diplomacy. MitKat’s framework enabled the client to see clearly through the uncertainty and delivered strategic insights about the country.