Client: A Multinational Oil & Gas Operator
Location: Pan-Global
Sector: Oil & Gas (Exploration, Refining, and Logistics)
Scope of Engagement
A leading global Oil & Gas operator was assessing the viability of re-entering Libya’s upstream and midstream sectors, particularly in Sirte Basin and southwestern oil fields. Libya’s proven reserves and post-conflict reconstruction push made it an attractive proposition, but overlapping authorities, armed militia influence, and an uncertain regulatory regime raised fundamental concerns. The client required a structured Country Risk Assessment to inform its Investment Risk Committee and to define pre-conditions for engagement in exploration and pipeline rehabilitation projects.
Our Response
MitKat activated its Geopolitical Risk Assessment Framework, tailored to the energy sector and fragile state dynamics. The engagement involved a layered approach combining real-time intelligence, conflict mapping, stakeholder profiling, and scenario analysis to support high-stakes decision-making.
Key Actions Taken:
- Country Profiling
Assessed Libya’s governance focusing on the rivalry between the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) and the eastern House of Representatives-backed leadership. Examined the legitimacy of hydrocarbon contracts issued by competing authorities, and the role of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) as regulatory institution. - Risk Matrix Mapping
Analysed multiple indicators across political, economic, social, environmental, and security dimensions. Flagged critical risks including:- Armed group interference in oil infrastructure
- Revenue-sharing disputes between regions
- Currency instability and payment risk
- Opaque contract arbitration procedures
- Sectoral Vulnerability Analysis
Mapped oil and gas-specific risks:- Pipeline sabotage and blockades by tribal militias
- Security risks to expatriate workforce and on-site storage
- Challenges in securing force majeure protection
- Dependency on foreign mercenaries for asset protection
- Scenario Planning
Built scenarios around:- Sudden regime shifts or collapse of peace talks
- Civil-military confrontation over oil revenue control
- Geopolitical escalation involving foreign powers
- Breakdown of oil export continuity through key ports
- Stakeholder Mapping
Identified key power brokers and gatekeepers:- Political Leadership in Libya
- National Oil Corporation (Tripoli)
- Ministry of Oil (GNU) and rival authorities in the East
- Commanders of local armed groups controlling oil installations
- Tribal groups in Fezzan and Sirte Basin
- International actors shaping the policy
The final deliverables included a comprehensive Country Risk Assessment, and a Board-level Risk Brief. This helped the client to take strategic decisions on expansion into the Libya and plan its risk contingency.