Many see Modi’s recent meeting with Putin from a western lens – leading to oversimplistic conclusions. Indian journalist Shekhar Gupta has provided an apt analysis of the geostrategic context, Indo-Russian energy and military relationship and emphasized the need for India to balance relations with Russia vis-à-vis Russia’s relations with China.
The geostrategic context: India & Russia are not neighbors, but in the same geostrategic neighborhood, says Gupta. India’s big geostrategic challenge is China with whom it has a tense border standoff since 2020. Russia’s growing proximity to China makes it imperative for India to balance its relations with Russia & prevent it from going into China’s lap, adds Gupta. Economically & politically isolated Russia would also like to not put all eggs in China’s basket.
History: India enjoyed strong relations with Soviet Union during the Cold War, the relations with the US were frosty. The collapse of the Soviet Union & emergence of an unipolar world saw India improving its relations with the US. Relations with Russia, regained momentum over the last decade.
India-Russia Bilateral Summit: The current Modi-Putin meet was the first bilateral summit undertaken by Modi after his re-election for a third term – it highlights the importance of this relationship. It is part of Indo-Russia biannual summit, which was disrupted By COVID-19 & war in Ukraine. Putin visited India in 2021. Modi last went to Moscow in 2019, but has met Putin at Vladivostok & during SCO when he said, “This is not an era of war.”
Energy: India’s trade with Russia has increased from nearly $10 bn in 2015 to $65.7 bn. The leaders want to take it $100 bn. India imports >$60 bn (mainly crude) & exports only $3.2 bn – this is a problem. India had to walk the diplomatic tightrope on the surge in oil imports from Russia, with West alleging that India buying Russian oil was helping Moscow finance its war in Ukraine. India emphasized that as world’s third largest importer of crude oil, with import dependency of >85%, energy security & affordability are key priorities. India-Russian oil trade brought stability to global oil markets. For 2024, Russian crude accounts for 36% of India’s oil imports (=1.70 bn barrels). According to Indian Express’ analysis of official trade data, Indian refiners saved $10.5 bn in forex (Apr 22 to May 24) by ramping up purchase of discounted Russian crude oil. Russia is New Delhi’s biggest oil supplier.
Arms: India is reducing its dependence on Russian hardware, but this involves a long tail. There have few orders in recent years except S-400 AD system, attrition replacements & spares. As per SIPRI, Russia’s arms exports have gone down 52% from 2014-18 to 2019-23. Exports to India have fallen by 34%. India buys arms from the US, France & Israel, & is boosting indigenization. To offset the balance of payment, India & Russia may undertake joint manufacturing of spares in India.