Executive Summary for the Heavy Rainfall Forecast in Greece
The Hellenic National Meteorological Service (EMY) has issued a heavy rainfall warning effective 12–13 February, with peak intensity expected on 13 February. The most affected areas include Kefalonia, Zakynthos, Ilia, Achaia and surrounding river catchments. Anticipated impacts include flash floods, road washouts, ferry disruptions and localized power outages over a 24–36-hour window.
- Date of Event: 12-13 February
- Location: Ionian Islands, Western Greece, Peloponnese, Crete and parts of Northern Greece
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 80 %
What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Environmental Events
Environmental risk analysis evaluates threats arising from severe weather, flooding and natural hazards that disrupt infrastructure, supply chains and communities. In Greece, heavy rainfall events, particularly affecting the Ionian Islands and western mainland, have historically produced rapid river rises, urban flooding and transport disruption. EMY advisories are generally reliable indicators of short-duration but high-impact weather systems. The current warning aligns with previous winter rainfall events that caused localized but significant operational strain rather than nationwide catastrophic damage.
Current Updates
Forecasts indicate persistent rainfall and embedded thunderstorms, particularly across the Ionian corridor and western mainland. Coastal gusts may compound flooding risk and disrupt ferry schedules. Authorities are expected to activate civil protection advisories and closely monitor river gauges including the Alfeios and Acheloos.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact:
- Argostoli (Kefalonia) and Zakynthos town (low-lying coastal zones)
- Alfeios River floodplain near Pyrgos (Ilia)
- Patras port and urban drainage networks
Medium Impact:
- EO5/Ionian Highway (A5) connectors near Agrinio and Arta
- Acheloos river basin in western mainland Greece
Low Impact:
- Inland urban centres outside primary catchments
Seasonal recurrence of winter storms in western Greece increases susceptibility due to saturated soils and vulnerable drainage infrastructure.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Heavy rainfall may trigger temporary closures along EO5 and local secondary roads, particularly in mountainous connectors. Ferry services to Kefalonia and Zakynthos could face delays or cancellations due to adverse sea conditions. Regional flights may experience schedule adjustments. Localized power outages from fallen trees and short-term water service disruptions in flood-prone municipalities are possible. Businesses dependent on ferry-linked freight and tourism flows face moderate operational delays.
Recommended Actions
Immediate Measures:
- Activate organizational weather response plans and designate an incident lead.
- Transition non-essential staff to remote work for 12–13 February.
- Elevate critical assets and secure ground-level equipment in flood-prone sites.
- Monitor official EMY updates and civil protection advisories.
Strategic Measures:
- Establish alternate logistics routing outside affected prefectures.
- Pre-position emergency supplies and backup power systems.
- Document assets and inventory for potential insurance claims.
Multidimensional Impact
Concurrent animal disease response efforts in Kefalonia could face logistical delays due to flooding and transport disruption, increasing pressure on municipal emergency resources.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Number: 112
- Fire Service (Greece): 119
- EMY Weather Updates: emy.gr/en
Final Thoughts
The EMY rainfall warning signals a moderate but concentrated environmental risk across western Greece and the Ionian Islands. The most critical window is 12–13 February, with localized flooding and transport disruption likely. Businesses should prioritize flood preparedness, logistics flexibility and real-time monitoring.
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