Executive Summary for the Fuel Supply Pressure in Dhaka
Long queues reported at filling stations across Dhaka indicate constrained fuel distribution and increased demand pressure in urban retail markets. Initial assessments suggest that supply interruptions are linked to delivery bottlenecks rather than a nationwide outage. The disruption may persist for three to seven days if bulk supply schedules stabilize. Impacts are expected to concentrate on commuters, ride-hailing services, logistics providers, and small businesses dependent on road transport. Secondary risks include localized protests, traffic congestion, and opportunistic fuel price increases at retail stations.
- Date of Event: 06 March
- Location: Mohammadpur, Moghbazar, Mirpur, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Risk Category: Critical Infrastructure
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 70 %
What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Critical Infrastructure Events
Critical infrastructure risk analysis evaluates threats that disrupt essential systems such as energy supply, fuel distribution, transport networks, and utilities. Fuel shortages are particularly significant in dense urban centres where transportation, emergency services, and logistics operations depend heavily on stable energy supply chains. In Dhaka, fuel and gas supply pressures have periodically emerged due to upstream LNG constraints, tanker delivery delays, or distribution bottlenecks at urban retail stations. Historical incidents between 2023 and 2025 demonstrate that such disruptions typically produce multi-day congestion at fuel pumps and operational strain for transport-dependent sectors. Assessing the risk allows authorities and businesses to manage supply chain disruption, maintain mobility, and prevent escalation into civil unrest.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact:
- Mirpur Road corridor (Mirpur-10 to Pallabi)
- Airport Road near Shahjalal International Airport
- Motijheel commercial district fuel stations
Medium Impact:
- Gulshan and Banani residential-commercial districts
- Moghbazar transport corridor
Low Impact:
- Peripheral districts with lower commuter traffic and fewer retail stations
Sensitive infrastructure includes hospital clusters near Dhaka Medical College Hospital and logistics routes serving commercial hubs. Fuel queueing in these areas has historically intensified congestion and increased tensions during shortages.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Fuel scarcity directly affects Dhaka’s transport ecosystem. Long queues at petrol stations create localized traffic congestion on major arterial roads and reduce the availability of buses, taxis, and ride-hailing services. Logistics providers and e-commerce operators may face delivery delays, particularly for time-sensitive shipments such as food supplies and medical products. Businesses dependent on vehicle fleets may scale back operations, while hospitals and telecommunications facilities may increase generator use to maintain operations. Extended shortages could strain fuel reserves used for backup power, affecting essential services and digital infrastructure.
Recommended Actions
Immediate Measures:
- Activate fuel rationing plans for essential vehicles and emergency services.
- Reduce non-essential fleet operations and promote remote work where feasible.
- Deploy security personnel at facilities to prevent fuel hoarding or unauthorized refuelling.
- Communicate revised delivery timelines to customers and suppliers.
Strategic Measures:
- Establish secondary fuel procurement arrangements outside central Dhaka.
- Develop contingency logistics routes and fuel-efficient transport strategies
- Maintain fuel reserves for critical infrastructure and generator operations
- Coordinate with local authorities and energy regulators for supply updates and operational guidance.
Multidimensional Impact
Fuel shortages may heighten public frustration, particularly during politically sensitive periods. Traffic congestion near filling stations could disrupt commercial activity in major business districts, while increased generator use may raise operational costs for hospitals, telecom operators, and logistics firms.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Number: 999
Final Thoughts
The current fuel supply pressure in Dhaka presents a moderate but manageable critical infrastructure risk. While disruptions are expected to remain localized and temporary, prolonged shortages could affect urban mobility, logistics networks, and essential services. Continuous monitoring of fuel distribution patterns and early coordination between authorities and businesses will be essential to prevent escalation.
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