What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters?
This report provides a risk analysis for a natural disaster in the form of widespread flooding in Bali, Indonesia. The analysis helps organizations prepare for operational challenges related to widespread transport disruption, business continuity, and employee safety in response to the flooding.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 10 September 2025
- Location: Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 85%
Bali is currently experiencing significant flooding in Denpasar, a situation consistent with historical patterns of heavy rainfall and flash floods. A high-severity, moderate-duration event is the most probable outcome. We forecast the peak disruption to be the next 48-72 hours, with significant residual impacts lasting up to 5-7 days.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- People Safety: Historical events show floods and landslides leading to fatalities and injuries, with one victim already confirmed in the current incident.
- Travel & Mobility: Road closures are highly probable, severely impacting local and inter-regional travel.
- Infrastructure & Utilities: Widespread utility damage is already confirmed, with thousands of electricity customers disrupted due to flooded substations and downed power poles.
- Business Operations: Flooding disrupts local commerce and tourism, with past incidents showing operational paralysis due to inaccessibility and power outages.
- Asset Security: Significant damage to property, vehicles, and infrastructure is common.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Disruptions to transportation routes due to closures and damage will impede the movement of goods.
Recommended Actions
- Activate Emergency Response: Immediately activate the company’s flood response plan and designate a crisis management team to monitor the local situation and coordinate real-time responses. Prioritize verifying the safety and location of all employees.
- Secure Physical Assets: For sites in or near flood-affected areas, execute pre-planned asset protection measures such as elevating critical equipment and deploying sandbags.
- Diversify Operational Points: Activate contingency plans for operational continuity, such as rerouting deliveries via alternative supply chain pathways or shifting essential services to unaffected backup facilities.
- Proactively Communicate: Establish a consistent communication channel to provide regular, transparent updates to employees, clients, and suppliers regarding operational status and safety advisories.
- Assess Long-Term Impacts: Conduct a rapid damage assessment of company premises and local infrastructure and work with logistics partners to identify viable alternative transport routes. Review and update business continuity plans based on lessons learned from this event.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 110
- Fire Department: 113
- Ambulance: 118
- National Emergency: 112
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates a gradual recession of floodwaters as heavy rainfall subsides. However, businesses should be prepared for a moderate escalation. This could involve intermittent heavy rains continuing for several days, causing prolonged flooding and expanding into adjacent low-lying areas. This would lead to more widespread utility outages and greater disruption to tourism and local business. A severe escalation, while a low-probability event, could lead to widespread flash floods, critical infrastructure damage, and long-term economic and reputational harm to the region. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while closely monitoring for signs of escalation to trigger more comprehensive contingency plans.
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