What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disaster Events
Risk analysis for natural disasters evaluates threats arising from extreme weather, seismic activity or hydrometeorological hazards that can disrupt communities and critical infrastructure. In Sri Lanka, cyclones and monsoonal depressions historically trigger severe flooding, landslides and multi-day transport shutdowns. Understanding historical precedents and environmental vulnerability, particularly in hilly districts and coastal belts, provides essential insight into the likely severity and cascading impacts of Cyclone Ditwah.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 28 November
- Location: Galle, Colombo, Kandy, Anuradhapura, Trincomalee, Central, Eastern, Northern, Western and Southern Provinces, Sri Lanka
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 4 / 5
- Confidence Level: 72%
Cyclone Ditwah is forecast to affect Sri Lanka over the next 48 to 120 hours, with heavy rainfall, strong winds, and elevated landslide and flooding risks. Early impacts include suspended train services, flood and landslide warnings, and aviation advisories. Transport corridors and port access routes are expected to face intermittent closures, and hill districts may experience slope failures. While the cyclone’s track retains uncertainty, severity remains high due to saturated soils and recurring monsoonal vulnerabilities.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact:
- Ratnapura, Nuwara Eliya, Badulla, Kegalle (landslide-prone highlands)
- Galle, Colombo coastal belts and Kelani River floodplain
- Colombo Port access roads and Bandaranaike International Airport routes
Medium Impact:
- Anuradhapura, Trincomalee and other eastern/northern districts exposed to heavy rainfall
- Southern Expressway (E01) and A2 coastal corridor
Low Impact:
- Inland semi-urban areas with lower flood exposure but dependent on disrupted transport links
Hill districts routinely experience landslide clusters during cyclones and enhanced monsoon rains.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Significant rail suspensions, road blockages on A2 and intermittent closures along E01 are likely. Flooding near Colombo may restrict port access and cause container gate delays, while strong winds and heavy rainfall may lead to flight delays at BIA. Utility services may experience electricity outages, reduced water supply and degraded mobile coverage. Business continuity risks include workforce inaccessibility, delayed deliveries and downtime for facilities in low-lying or hillside areas.
Recommended Actions
- Activate Cyclone Response Team and complete welfare checks within two hours.
- Suspend non-essential on-site work in high-risk districts and facilitate staff relocation or remote work.
- Secure assets: elevate equipment, reinforce drainage, relocate chemicals and deploy flood barriers.
- Maintain IT and operational continuity through generator readiness, cloud backups and supplier rerouting.
- Issue customer updates within four hours, including service-impact windows and contingency measures.
Multidimensional Impact
Concurrent heavy rains, landslides and transport suspensions may amplify humanitarian needs and disrupt planned public events, strikes or gatherings. This convergence can complicate emergency access and heighten operational and reputational risk for organisations.
Emergency Contacts
- Sri Lanka Disaster Management Centre (DMC): dmc.gov.lk/
- Sri Lanka Meteorological Department: meteo.gov.lk
- Emergency Numbers (Police/Ambulance/Fire): 118 / 110
Final Thoughts
Cyclone Ditwah’s trajectory and intensity warrant continuous monitoring over the next five days, with secondary risks persisting for up to two weeks. Organisations should prioritise proactive safety, flexible operations and clear communication. Early-warning and intelligence platforms such as MitKat’s Datasurfr can enhance readiness for evolving natural hazards. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.