Executive Summary for Heavy Rainfall in Nepal
Nepal’s Meteorological Forecasting Division has forecast heavy rainfall in the hilly areas of Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces on Monday, 21 September 2026. The country remains under the influence of monsoon winds, while westerly winds are also affecting parts of Nepal.
Moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms is expected at scattered locations in several other regions, while isolated rainfall is possible across parts of Gandaki, Lumbini and Sudurpashchim. Authorities have advised residents in areas vulnerable to flooding, landslides and other weather-related hazards to remain alert as conditions may change rapidly.
- Date of Event: 21 September 2026
- Location: Nepal
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 82%
What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Environment Events
Environmental event risk analysis assesses the potential effects of intense precipitation on transportation, infrastructure, flooding, landslides and business operations. The risk is higher in Nepal’s hilly and mountainous terrain, where heavy rainfall can rapidly affect road access and slope stability.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact
- Koshi Province: Hilly areas forecast to receive heavy rainfall.
- Bagmati Province: Hilly areas face heavy rainfall, while thunderstorms and moderate rainfall are also expected in parts of the province.
- Gandaki Province: Hilly areas are included in the heavy-rainfall forecast.
- Lumbini Province: Heavy rainfall is forecast in hilly areas.
Medium Impact
- Madhesh Province: Moderate rainfall with thunderstorms is expected at scattered locations.
- Terai areas of Koshi and Bagmati: Scattered moderate rainfall and thunderstorms are possible.
- Karnali and Sudurpashchim: Scattered rainfall is forecast in parts of these provinces.
Low Impact
- Terai areas of Koshi, Lumbini and Sudurpashchim: Partly cloudy conditions are expected, with comparatively lower rainfall exposure than the identified heavy-rainfall areas.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms may affect road travel, particularly in hilly areas where flooding and landslides can cause temporary access restrictions. Rapidly changing conditions could also affect outdoor operations and local infrastructure.
Recommended Actions
- Monitor DHM weather and hazard updates before travelling.
- Allow additional journey time on hilly and mountainous roads.
- Avoid travelling through areas experiencing heavy rainfall where flooding or landslides are reported.
- Businesses operating in exposed areas should review contingency arrangements for possible access disruptions.
- Follow local authority instructions if flood or landslide warnings are issued.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 100
- Fire Services: 101
- Ambulance: 102
- DHM Extreme Weather/Flood Information: 1155
Final Thoughts
The forecast represents a high environmental risk, particularly across hilly areas of Koshi, Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini. The combination of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and Nepal’s mountainous terrain creates potential for localized flooding, landslides and associated travel disruption. Leveraging MitKat’s Datasurfr enables businesses to receive real-time intelligence, monitor evolving threats and make informed decisions to protect people, assets and operations.