What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Travel Risk Events
Travel risk analysis focuses on threats that affect the movement of people, goods and services, including infrastructure works, accidents and regulatory closures. In this case, planned and rolling motorway closures represent a travel risk due to their potential to disrupt high-density commuter flows, airport connectivity and regional supply chains. Greater Manchester has a documented history of prolonged motorway works on the M60, M62 and M56 causing cascading congestion, making advance risk assessment essential.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 13-31 January
- Location: Greater Manchester, England, United Kingdom
- Risk Category: Travel Risks
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 75 %
Multiple planned motorway closures across Greater Manchester are expected to continue until 31 January. Impacts are likely to include extended journey times, congestion on diversion routes and moderate disruption to logistics, airport access and commuter mobility across the city-region.
Current Updates
Local reporting confirms phased closures and lane restrictions affecting the M60, M62 and M56, with works scheduled through the end of January. Diversions are in place onto key A-roads, while Manchester Airport has issued advisories for travellers using the M56 corridor. Closure patterns are expected to vary by day, with overnight and intermittent full restrictions.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact: M56 approaches to Manchester Airport, M60 orbital sections near Trafford and Salford, and M62 junctions serving logistics parks and freight hubs.
Medium Impact: Diversion corridors including A56, A57, A6144 and A5103, which historically experience congestion spillover.
Low Impact: Peripheral Greater Manchester routes with limited through-traffic.
These corridors face recurrent disruption during winter maintenance periods, increasing the likelihood of extended delays.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Road transport will experience the greatest impact, with delays of 30–120 minutes during peak periods on affected motorways and diversion routes. Bus services crossing motorway junctions may face reduced reliability, while airport transfers are at heightened risk of delay. Rail services may see increased demand as commuters shift modes. Business operations reliant on just-in-time deliveries, retail restocking and time-critical airport movements face moderate operational stress.
Recommended Actions
- In the short term, organisations should adjust delivery windows, reroute freight away from peak closure periods and expand remote or flexible working arrangements.
- Employers should provide clear staff travel guidance and pre-approved alternatives for essential on-site roles.
- Strategically, businesses are advised to strengthen transport disruption playbooks, diversify logistics routing options and maintain real-time monitoring of National Highways updates and local authority advisories.
Multidimensional Impact
Extended motorway disruption may indirectly affect emergency response times, healthcare staff mobility and attendance at public or commercial events, particularly during peak congestion windows.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Services (UK): 999
- Non-Emergency Police: 101
- Traffic and Road Updates: nationalhighways.co.uk/travel-updates/
Final Thoughts
The risk outlook points to sustained but manageable disruption across Greater Manchester through late January. While severity remains moderate, cumulative impacts on mobility and logistics warrant proactive planning. For businesses and policymakers, continuous situational awareness and early-warning tools such as MitKat’s Datasurfr are critical to reducing operational friction and maintaining resilience during extended transport disruptions. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.