What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disaster Events
Risk analysis for natural disasters evaluates the probability, severity, and cascading impacts of environmental hazards such as floods, storms, or earthquakes. In this case, the risk stems from tidal flooding, a recurrent phenomenon along Jakarta’s northern coastline. Historically, North Jakarta has experienced repeated seasonal inundation driven by high tides, land subsidence, and drainage constraints, making early assessment critical for urban resilience and continuity planning.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 02 January
- Location: North Jakarta, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Risk Category: Natural Disasters
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 78 %
A coastal flood alert was issued for North Jakarta on 02 January amid elevated tidal conditions. Historical patterns indicate such events typically last between two and six days, with localized persistence in low-lying coastal neighborhoods. The anticipated impact is localized but disruptive, particularly for residential areas, wet markets, and coastal road networks. Severity is assessed as moderate due to limited citywide effects but higher localized exposure for vulnerable communities and small businesses.
Current Updates
Local disaster management authorities placed several sluice gates, including Pasar Ikan, on heightened alert status, with warnings extending through at least 07 January. Municipal teams have been mobilized, and advisories highlight Muara Angke, Penjaringan, and surrounding areas as priority zones. No large-scale evacuations have been reported at issuance.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact: Muara Angke, Penjaringan, Kapuk Muara, and Pasar Ikan, where tidal flooding is recurrent and ground-floor exposure is high.
Medium Impact: Pluit and coastal access roads toward Ancol, which experience intermittent inundation and traffic slowdowns.
Low Impact: Inland North Jakarta districts with higher elevation and better drainage.
These areas face seasonal risk during peak tidal cycles, with escalation possible if heavy rainfall coincides.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Tidal flooding is likely to cause temporary road closures and congestion on coastal arterials, disrupting commuter movement and last-mile logistics. Ferry services to nearby islands may face delays, while bus routes and motorcycle couriers are commonly rerouted. Business operations, particularly small retail and fish-market supply chains, may experience short-term closures and delivery delays. Utilities such as potable water and electricity may face localized disruptions.
Recommended Actions
- Immediate actions include activating flood response protocols, enabling remote work for affected staff, and securing ground-floor assets. Facilities teams should deploy barriers, pumps, and power safeguards.
- Strategically, organizations should strengthen business continuity plans, diversify logistics routes, and coordinate closely with BPBD Jakarta, municipal authorities, and local police for situational updates.
Multidimensional Impact
The flood alert coincides with high post-holiday return traffic, increasing congestion risks if coastal roads are submerged. Disruptions to Pasar Ikan supply chains may affect food availability and pricing in the short term.
Emergency Contacts
- Emergency Services: 112
- Jakarta BPBD: +62 21 6340546
Final Thoughts
The current tidal flood alert indicates a moderate but manageable risk trajectory, with localized impacts likely over the coming days. Businesses and policymakers should closely monitor tide and rainfall patterns, prioritize early warnings, and leverage preparedness platforms such as MitKat’s Datasurfr to mitigate recurring coastal flood risks and strengthen urban resilience.
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