What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events
Civil disturbance risk analysis focuses on the operational, safety and continuity implications of organised labour actions, protests and public demonstrations. Such events frequently affect mobility, logistics, emergency response and business operations. In Portugal, recurring strike patterns in 2024–2025, especially across metro, buses, trains and municipal services, have demonstrated the potential for concentrated disruption in core urban centres. Analysing these patterns enables organisations to anticipate impacts on staff movement, service delivery, supply chains and public safety.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 11 December
- Location: Portugal
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 78 %
A nationwide general strike on 11 December will cause severe transport and municipal disruptions, especially in Lisbon, Porto and Setúbal. Minimum services will apply to trains, buses and ferries, while the Lisbon Metro may shut or operate reduced hours due to exclusion from minimum-service requirements. Disruptions are expected for 24 to 48 hours with residual delays up to 72 hours. Anticipated impacts include major congestion, service reductions, high absenteeism and delays to time-sensitive deliveries.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
High Impact:
- Central Lisbon (Avenida da Liberdade, Praça do Comércio/Terreiro do Paço, Marquês de Pombal).
- Key transport hubs (Cais do Sodré, Santa Apolónia, Rossio, Baixa-Chiado).
Medium Impact:
- Porto and Setúbal urban centres with high dependency on public transport.
- Approaches to CRIL (IC17) and 25 de Abril bridge.
Low Impact:
- Peripheral municipalities with lower reliance on metro and ferry services.
Recurring pattern: December strikes have historically produced multi-hour congestion and high service absenteeism across municipal sectors..
Impact on Transportation and Services
The Lisbon Metro is likely to operate minimal or no services, causing substantial pressure on buses, taxis and private vehicles. Train, bus and ferry operators will run minimum services, resulting in long waits, reduced frequency and cascading delays. Airports may experience indirect disruption if ground-handling staff join the strike, potentially affecting flight schedules. Business operations in central districts may face workforce shortages, late arrivals, curtailed customer footfall and schedule slippage in logistics and B2B deliveries. Digital services remain intact but access to physical assets and work locations will be hindered.
Recommended Actions
Immediate Measures:
- Initiate strike-contingency roster; confirm remote-work eligibility; implement staggered shifts.
- Reroute deliveries to off-peak hours; activate secondary logistics hubs (e.g., Porto/Faro).
- Increase site-security posture at facilities near major transport hubs.
- Issue pre-strike notifications to clients, suppliers and regulators with service-impact guidance.
Strategic Measures:
- Maintain inventory buffers for 48 to 72 hours.
- Strengthen remote-access capacity and ensure VPN resilience.
- Update continuity plans to capture recurring strike patterns and peak-season risks.
Multidimensional Impact
Should airport ground-handling staff participate, flight delays or cancellations may occur. Coastal weather alerts for Lisboa and Setúbal could compound congestion and create longer travel times, especially where ferry services are already reduced.
Emergency Contacts
- Portugal Emergency Services: 112
- Lisbon Municipal Police: +351 21 722 5200
- Infraestruturas de Portugal Traffic Alerts: servicos.infraestruturasdeportugal.pt/pt-pt/alertas-ips
- CP (Trains) Hotline: 210 900 032
- Carris (Buses) Information: 213 613 000
Final Thoughts
The strike is expected to produce high-impact but time-bound disruptions concentrated in major cities. Organisations should anticipate short-term continuity challenges, prioritise remote-working measures and maintain clear communication with stakeholders. Integrating real-time intelligence platforms such as MitKat’s Datasurfr will strengthen preparedness for future civil disturbance events. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.