What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Environmental Events
Environmental risk analysis evaluates the impact of natural phenomena such as heavy rainfall, floods, storms, or heatwaves on human safety, infrastructure, and business continuity. In Iraq’s context, the fragility of drainage and power infrastructure significantly amplifies the effect of heavy rainfall events. Historical weather patterns, such as the 2013–2014 and 2019 flood episodes, revealed the recurring vulnerability of transport and utility systems. Assessing such risks enables timely mitigation, ensuring that organizations and government agencies strengthen resilience and response mechanisms against similar meteorological threats.
Executive Summary
- Date of Event: 14 November 2025
- Location: Basra, Dhi Qar, Al Muthanna, Baghdad, Diyala, Babylon, Saladin, Nineveh, and Al Anbar Governorates, Iraq
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Score: 3 / 5
- Confidence Level: 90 %
A humid low-pressure system is expected to cause inclement weather across Iraq beginning 14 November, lasting three to five days. The event is anticipated to produce heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and temporary disruptions to transport and utilities. The potential for moderate business interruption and infrastructure damage is significant in central and southern governorates. Confidence in this forecast remains high, supported by meteorological data and past weather trends in the region.
Current Updates
Meteorological forecasts confirm humid lows entering Iraq’s airspace, bringing heavy rainfall and increased wind intensity. Key impact areas include Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Al Muthanna, and Al Anbar, where existing drainage and power systems remain vulnerable to overload during sustained rain events.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
- High Impact: Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, and Al Muthanna Governorates — urban flooding and potential infrastructure failures expected in low-lying zones and areas with inadequate drainage.
- Medium Impact: Babylon, Diyala, and Saladin Governorates — partial flooding and road disruption likely.
- Low Impact: Nineveh and Al Anbar Governorates — minimal direct rainfall but potential indirect impact from river overflow or transport link disruptions.
Historically, central and southern governorates have recorded repeated infrastructure damage from similar weather systems, particularly where drainage maintenance is delayed.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Road networks across major highways (Baghdad–Basra, Baghdad–Anbar) may experience partial closures or congestion. Air travel from Baghdad and Basra International Airports could face temporary delays. Flooding near oil installations and ports in southern Iraq may disrupt freight movement and slow logistical operations, while intermittent power outages could affect digital services and utilities.
Recommended Actions
- Activate emergency weather protocols and issue safety advisories to staff and transport operators.
- Conduct infrastructure inspections, clearing drains and securing assets against water ingress.
- Establish remote work readiness where feasible and ensure operational redundancy for IT systems.
- Maintain emergency fuel and water reserves and verify generator functionality for critical sites.
- Monitor real-time alerts via Iraqi General Authority for Meteorology and Seismic Monitoring (IMOS) and local civil defence units.
Emergency Contacts
- Iraqi Civil Defence Directorate: 115
- General Authority for Meteorology and Seismic Monitoring: https://www.meteoseism.gov.iq/
- Emergency Numbers (Ambulance, Police, Fire): 122, 104, 115
- Red Crescent Society – Iraq: + 964 770 674 008
Final Thoughts
The upcoming weather system poses moderate but manageable environmental risk. While short-term disruptions to travel, supply chains, and utilities are expected, early preparedness and adherence to safety advisories can significantly reduce operational impact. Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.