Overview
Tanzania is set to conduct its general elections including the presidential, National Assembly, and ward councillor races on 29 October 2025 from 0800 hours local time (0500 UTC) to 1600 hours local time (1300 UTC) across both the mainland and Zanzibar. The Tanzania general elections come amid rising political tension, digital restrictions, and concerns about institutional independence.
Recent Developments
Tensions have escalated in the lead-up to the Tanzania general elections. On 06 October, former ambassador and ruling party critic Humphrey Polepole was reportedly abducted from his residence in Dar es Salaam, heightening political unease.
On 13 October, the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) issued a warning against spreading election-related misinformation online and introduced tighter scrutiny over VPN usage, reinforcing state control over digital communication.
On 14 October, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) confirmed the deployment of an Election Observation Mission (SEOM) to oversee the 29 October polls.
Further tensions emerged on 22 October, when police detained a senior opposition official outside a Dar es Salaam court amid ongoing proceedings against CHADEMA leaders. On 28 October, rights and digital-rights organizations issued a joint statement urging the government to maintain open internet access during the elections.
Background
Tanzania, ruled by Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) since independence, enters its 2025 general elections under a tightly controlled environment marked by institutional dominance and executive influence.
The 2024 reorganization of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) maintained government control, while restrictions on media, civil society, and opposition activity have intensified.
With nearly 70 percent of the population under 30, the growing youth demographic, combined with social-media-driven mobilization and digital censorship, has created underlying social tension. These dynamics raise the risk of localized unrest in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, and Zanzibar around the election period.
Immediate Risks
- High likelihood of CCM victory under restricted political conditions, potentially triggering localized protests by opposition supporters.
- Temporary internet and communication restrictions are possible during and after polling, disrupting information flow and business operations.
- Increased security presence and checkpoints near polling stations, ports, and intersections may slow movement and logistics.
- Operational disruptions to transport, supply chains, and government services are likely within 24 to 72 hours post-election.
- Urban unrest risks remain highest in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, and Zanzibar, particularly after results are announced.
Possible Election Scenarios
Status Quo Affirmation
Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and President Samia Suluhu Hassan are expected to secure a dominant victory with limited opposition participation and minimal disruption. International reaction is likely to remain muted.
Limited Unrest
Localized protests or digital mobilization may occur in urban centers or Zanzibar over alleged irregularities but are unlikely to cause major political change.
Recommendations
- Develop contingency plans for potential disturbances, including temporary closures and flexible staffing.
- Identify secondary operational sites outside politically sensitive areas to ensure business continuity.
- Maintain inventory buffers for critical goods likely to face logistical delays.
- Keep transparent communication with partners and clients about safety measures.
- For emergency assistance, contact INEC Hotline (+255 22 211 0000), visit facebook.com/nec.tanzania.39, or dial Police Emergency (112).
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