What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance?
This report provides a risk analysis for a nationwide strike in France, which is a form of civil disturbance. The analysis helps organizations prepare for operational challenges related to widespread transport disruption, business continuity, and employee safety in response to the strike.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 10 September 2025
- Location: France
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 90%
A nationwide general strike, promoted under the slogan ‘Bloquons Tout’ (Block Everything), is scheduled across France for Wednesday, September 10. The strike is expected to cause severe disruption to public services and transport. The immediate disruption window is projected for 24-48 hours, with a high likelihood of significant travel delays and business closures.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Travel & Mobility: Nationwide strikes consistently cause severe disruptions to all modes of transport, including rail, road, urban public transport, and air travel.
- Business Operations: The ‘block everything’ call suggests significant operational stoppages, forced business closures, and absenteeism due to transport failures.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Road blockades, port disruptions, and reduced freight train services will severely impede the movement of goods.
- People Safety: There is a historical risk of minor injuries from crowd control measures, isolated clashes, or accidental incidents.
- Asset Security: Localized instances of vandalism or damage to public and private property are possible.
Recommended Actions
- HR and Management: Activate mandatory remote work policies for all non-essential personnel. For critical on-site roles, implement flexible shifts and arrange alternative transportation.
- Supply Chain: Proactively reroute or reschedule critical shipments, leveraging contingency agreements with diversified logistics providers.
- Security: Enhance physical security measures for all facilities, especially in high-risk urban areas, and monitor local law enforcement advisories in real-time.
- Communication: Prepare and disseminate clear, pre-approved communications to all clients and external stakeholders detailing potential service disruptions.
- Business Continuity: Conduct an immediate impact assessment on critical business functions and activate relevant sections of the Business Continuity Plan.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 17
- Fire Department: 18
- Ambulance: 15
- National Emergency: 112
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates a widespread but managed strike, primarily impacting Wednesday, September 10, with significant disruption to travel and some business closures. While this is the most likely outcome, businesses should be prepared for a moderate escalation. This could involve more intense and prolonged demonstrations, leading to sustained road blockades and operational disruptions that extend beyond the initial 24-48 hour window. A severe escalation, while a low-probability event for this type of general strike, would involve widespread violence and significant property damage, necessitating more robust security protocols and long-term business continuity planning. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while closely monitoring for signs of escalation to trigger contingency plans.
Stay ahead of operational risks with real-time alerts, scenario modeling, and expert advisories with datasurfr’s Predict. Start your 14-day free trial of Datasurfr’s Risk Intelligence Platform today.