What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Civil Disturbance Events?
A civil disturbance is a public gathering or action that disrupts normal community functions. In this context, a risk analysis is used to prepare for operational challenges such as logistical delays, workforce availability, and potential security issues. This strike is a clear example of a civil disturbance with a high probability of causing a widespread transport disruption and is consistent with historical precedents of similar union-led strikes in the region.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 15 September 2025
- Location: Tunisia
- Risk Category: Civil Disturbance
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Level: 95%
A national strike by taxi drivers in Tunisia is set to cause significant disruption to passenger mobility from 15-17 September. Past transport strikes have led to widespread public transport paralysis in major urban centers. While direct fatalities are rare, a moderate risk of minor clashes exists. Businesses will experience moderate to high impact on their operations, especially those reliant on local transport or employee commutes.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
Major urban roads are highly susceptible to severe congestion. Key arterial roads in Tunis, such as Avenue Habib Bourguiba, and access roads to major hubs like Tunis-Carthage International Airport (TUN) will be significantly impacted. Sensitive areas include key governmental buildings in Tunis around La Kasbah and the Ministry of Transport, as well as major public squares like Place du 14 Janvier 2011. Transportation hubs, including the Gare de Tunis (main railway station) and central bus terminals, are also expected to see heightened activity due to increased demand for alternative transport.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Travel & Mobility: The primary impact will be on passenger transport, with significant disruption to all taxi services nationwide. This will lead to increased demand for, and potential overload of, public transport options like buses and the Tunis Metro. Airport and inter-city travel will be severely affected.
- Business Operations: Local business activities, including employee commutes, client meetings, and localized delivery services, will experience moderate to high disruption due to reduced mobility.
- People Safety: While historically rare, minor clashes between strikers, non-strikers, or authorities may occur, posing a moderate risk.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: The strike can cause minor localized delays for last-mile delivery services reliant on small vehicles and could indirectly affect labor availability in logistics hubs if workers struggle with commutes.
- Regulatory & Legal: Authorities are expected to engage in negotiations and may take measures to mitigate the strike’s impact.
- Asset Security: The strike poses minimal direct threat to physical assets.
- Communications & IT: No direct impact on infrastructure is anticipated.
Recommended Actions
- Conduct an urgent internal survey to identify employees relying on taxi services and assess their ability to work remotely. For essential on-site staff, implement a comprehensive alternative transport plan, including company-sponsored shuttles or incentivized carpooling.
- Proactively inform clients and stakeholders about potential disruptions to service delivery or in-person meetings. Activate virtual meeting protocols for all non-essential client interactions.
- Convene a cross-functional incident management team to continuously monitor the strike’s impact and establish a dedicated internal communication channel for real-time updates and safety advisories.
- Prioritize and secure the continuity of business-critical functions by ensuring a pre-arranged transport plan for essential personnel and a secure, alternative chain of custody for any sensitive assets.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 197
- Fire Department: 198
- Ambulance: 198
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates the national taxi strike will proceed as announced, lasting from 15-17 September. While participation is expected to be high, major violence is unlikely. However, a moderate escalation could involve more assertive actions, such as temporary road blockages or prolonged disruptions. The lowest probability scenario, a severe escalation, would see the strike spread to other transport sectors, leading to a general paralysis.
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