What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Natural Disasters?
This report assesses the risks of a severe monsoon event in Maharashtra. Historical analysis shows that the region is highly susceptible to extreme weather, leading to significant infrastructure damage and widespread disruption. This analysis helps organizations prepare for sustained operational challenges related to logistics, personnel movement, and asset protection. It is a critical tool for ensuring business continuity planning in a region highly susceptible to environmental threats.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 19 August 2025
- Location: Pune, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
- Risk Category: Environment
- Severity Score: 4/5
- Confidence Level: 95%
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red, orange, and yellow alerts for parts of Maharashtra from 19-22 August. Based on historical data, monsoon alerts of this severity frequently lead to significant urban flooding, widespread transportation disruptions, and a considerable socio-economic impact across major urban centers. The sustained nature of the alerts over four days indicates a high likelihood of prolonged disruption.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
Sensitive areas prone to severe waterlogging and related issues during heavy rainfall include low-lying parts of Mumbai such as Hindmata, Parel, Sion, Dadar, and Milan Subway. Coastal districts like Raigad and Ratnagiri are susceptible to flooding and high tides. The APMC Market in Navi Mumbai has historically faced severe waterlogging. Shanties and older, dilapidated buildings are vulnerable to wall and roof collapses.
Impact on Transportation and Services
Widespread disruptions to all modes of transport are highly probable. Mumbai local train services are frequently delayed or suspended due to waterlogged tracks. BEST bus services may be cancelled or diverted, and flights at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA) Mumbai may face significant delays and diversions. Road closures are expected on key arterial roads and subways, leading to significant traffic congestion.
Recommended Actions
- Implement flexible work-from-home (WFH) policies for non-essential staff, or stagger reporting times for essential personnel, prioritizing employee safety. Activate site-specific flood protection protocols, including elevating critical equipment and inventory.
- Proactively communicate with logistics partners and suppliers regarding potential disruptions to inbound and outbound shipments. Implement pre-approved alternative delivery routes or temporary warehousing solutions to maintain supply chain continuity.
- Activate the business continuity plan (BCP) focusing on maintaining critical operations and client service. Establish clear internal communication channels to disseminate real-time updates.
- The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and the Maharashtra Disaster Management Authority are key government bodies for monitoring and response.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 100
- Fire Department: 101
- Ambulance: 108
- National Emergency: 112
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates heavy rainfall continuing as forecasted, leading to localized waterlogging and moderate transport congestion. A moderate escalation could see rainfall intensify, causing widespread urban flooding and extended service suspensions. A severe escalation, a low-probability event, would involve unprecedented rainfall volumes leading to a catastrophic flood situation, causing significant loss of life and a complete halt of economic activity. Businesses should prepare for the baseline scenario while being mindful of the potential for escalation.
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