Risk Analysis: NCP threatens nationwide protests from 03 August
The National Citizen Party (NCP) has threatened nationwide protests beginning August 3rd, 2025, primarily in Dhaka. This event poses a moderate Political risk, with a high likelihood of significant localized disruptions to travel & mobility, and business operations.
What is Risk Analysis in the Context of Political Events
This report assesses the risks of a nationwide political protest, which can impact urban mobility, business continuity, and public safety. Such events can cause operational slowdowns and logistical impediments. This analysis helps businesses prepare for potential disruptions and mitigate risks from demonstrations, a common occurrence in major urban centers like Dhaka.
Executive Summary
- Date of Incident: 03 August 2025
- Location: Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Risk Category: Political
- Severity Score: 3/5
- Confidence Score: 80%
The National Citizen Party (NCP) has threatened nationwide protests from August 3rd, with a sit-in planned for August 5th in Dhaka. Based on historical analysis, there is a high likelihood (80% confidence) of these protests materializing, focusing on urban centers. The likely duration is 3-7 days. While the NCP’s capacity for sustained nationwide disruption is moderate, the potential for localized clashes and mobility constraints warrants a moderate severity assessment.
Known Hotspots and Sensitive Areas
Key hotspots include the Central Shaheed Minar and Tejgaon in Dhaka. Other sensitive areas include the vicinity of Dhaka University, political party headquarters, key government buildings, and major commercial districts like Motijheel and Gulistan.
Impact on Transportation and Services
- Road Closures: Protests are highly likely to cause significant road closures and traffic diversions in central Dhaka.
- Travel & Mobility: Significant disruptions to public transportation are expected, impeding intra-city travel.
- Business Operations: Businesses in protest-affected areas may experience temporary closures and employee absenteeism due to travel disruptions.
- Supply Chain & Logistics: Road blockades will cause delays in the movement of goods, affecting last-mile delivery and supply chain efficiency.
Recommended Actions
- Remote Work & Safety Protocols: Activate a ‘Work-From-Home’ protocol for non-essential personnel. Enhance physical security at all company premises and establish a communication plan for staff safety.
- Logistics & Inventory: Pre-position critical inventory and supplies outside anticipated protest zones. Develop and test alternative logistics routes and communicate proactively with suppliers and clients.
- Communication & Management: Convene an incident management team to monitor developments. Prepare external communication templates to inform stakeholders about potential service disruptions.
Emergency Contacts
- Police: 999 , 01777-622550
- Fire Department: 999 , 16163
- Ambulance: 999
- National Emergency: 999
Official Government Websites:
- Bangladesh Police Official Website: https://www.police.gov.bd/
- Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP): https://dmp.gov.bd/
- Ministry of Home Affairs, Bangladesh: https://mha.gov.bd/
Final Thoughts
The baseline scenario anticipates peaceful, localized protests in Dhaka, with minor traffic and business disruptions. A moderate escalation could lead to more frequent protests and clashes, causing prolonged road blockades and business closures. A severe escalation, though less likely, could result in widespread, sustained demonstrations, crippling national transport networks. Businesses must prioritize employee safety, ensure business continuity, and maintain effective communication.
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