The recent 12-day Israel- Iran war could fundamentally reshape the dynamics in the Middle East. It was a war in which all sides have claimed victory.
Israel was able to significantly degrade what it called “existential threats” from Iran – nuclear program and missile launchers and stockpiles. Diplomatically, it was able to get the US to greenlight its attack and later get it to militarily destroy the core of Iranian nuclear program. With Iran’s regional proxies Hamas and Hezbollah demolished and Yemen’s Houthis significantly degraded, Syria’s Assad regime overthrown, Russia distracted with its preoccupations in Ukraine, and Iran’s air defence compromised in earlier skirmishes, Iran was always going to be vulnerable. The military successes in Iran have shored up the popularity of Benjamin Netanyahu domestically.
Iranians claim that they inflicted significant damage inside Israel, resolutely stood up to the Superpower and still have nuclear material and knowhow, with the regime intact.
For Trump, this was a major foreign policy victory – first the spectacular military strikes using B-2 bombers and then a quick ceasefire. Owing to the deep polarization within the US society and media, he probably has got much less credit than he deserves.
The New York Times columnist Tom Friedman, in an interview with noted geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group believes the conflict will fundamentally reshape the region. He compares the recent Iran-Israel conflict to the 1967 Arab-Israel War, which “remade the Middle East.”
As per analysts, even within Iran, a debate could be raging between the hardliners – advocating for accelerated nuclear development towards weaponization and the pragmatists – pushing for diplomacy, economic development and reintegration into the global economy.
Tom Friedman notes a contradiction even on the Israeli side: the Israeli pilots, military and intelligence personnel and scientists who won this war are the very same citizens who protested for nine months against Netanyahu’s judicial reforms. While Netanyahu’s success in Iran has been spectacular, this underlying tension as well as discussions on Gaza – where a human tragedy is unfolding, could reshape Israel’s political discourse.
In Gaza, the options remain tough: occupation, instability, or a phased transition involving regional powers and Palestinian Authority. The humanitarian cost of the war continues to draw global attention. A credible peace process involving the Arabs, Palestinian Authority and a phased movement towards two-state solution as well as a wider Arab-Israeli rapprochement could be a desirable option.
As the dust settles, the key question remains: can US and Israel’s military success be converted into a long-term political and diplomatic win?
Disclaimer: The article has reference to open sources including the GZERO Media.